Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
The Houston Astros and Aaron Sanchez will square off against the Baltimore Orioles and Aaron Brooks in what should be a very high-scoring affair. Sanchez has been relying more heavily on his curveball since arriving in Houston, and that will likely be the strategy tonight. Even so, he has a fly ball rate approaching 40% and a hard hit rate over 40% in the last 15 days. Rostering one Oriole makes sense. The Astros are the team to target, though. Brooks is allowing almost two home runs per nine innings pitched this season, and the Astros are a very powerful offense. Vegas has this game set at 11 total runs, and the Astros are -261 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 7. In the last 15 days, Brooks has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate approaching 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The most interesting option on the Orioles’ team is Trey Mancini, as he is averaging 0.054 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH. His splits against right-handed pitching are positive, and he is hitting at the top of the Orioles’ batting order. As far as the Astros are concerned, George Springer is a must play. He is hitting leadoff, as usual, and averaging 0.063 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .300 with 2 home runs, and his advanced metrics are great over the last 15 days. There is no reason to avoid him. Both Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are worth consideration in the final remaining roster spot, but Bregman is slightly better. Both batters have the same average exit velocity on batted balls (95 MPH), but Bregman has a fly ball rate 7% higher and a hard hit rate 6% higher. In his last 10 games, Bregman is hitting almost .400 with 1 home run. One of these three options should hit a home run tonight.
Recommended Batters: Trey Mancini, George Springer, Alex Bregman
Home Run Prop Bet:
Alex Bregman (+235) – Houston Astros – 3B
Both Alex Bregman and George Springer have great advanced metrics, and over the last 10 days, both have shown off their power, but Bregman has wider home run odds tonight. Between the two, it really is a toss up, and taking the wider odds is the correct move.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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