Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
With only six games scheduled to take place tonight, it may be difficult to find the ideal matchup, but the show must go on. The Cincinnati Reds are set to square off against the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta, and Anthony DeSclafani should take the mound. He is allowing 1.5 HR/9, and Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs. The Braves and Max Fried are -152 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.3. DeSclafani has a fly ball rate of 30%, and a hard hit rate of 34%, so there is some potential for home runs tonight. The Braves do have quite a bit of power scattered throughout their lineup, and there is no better place to start than with Josh Donaldson. Donaldson is expected to hit fourth, and he is hitting 0.065 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are great, as he is sporting an average exit velocity of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate of 41%, and a hard hit rate of 55%. That has translated to a .256 batting average and 3 home runs in Donaldson’s last 10 games. Next, move down to Brian McCann. Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman are both viable options tonight, but Acuna has terrible splits against right-handed pitching, and Freeman has a fly ball rate under 30% in the last 15 days. McCann, on the other hand, has great splits against right-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s game with 0.176 ISO and 0.144 wOBA differentials, and he is hitting .350 with 2 home runs in his last 10 games. In the last 15 days, McCann has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Finally, round out the lineup with Adam Duvall. Duvall is hitting .500 with 4 home runs in his last 10 games, which has obviously boosted his advanced metrics. He also enters tonight’s game with great splits, sporting 0.159 ISO and 0.188 wOBA differentials, and there is no reason to avoid him tonight. The Braves should score often, and the power is there. On a short slate, this recommendation makes sense.
Recommended Batters: Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann, Adam Duvall
Home Run Prop Bet:
Adam Duvall (TBA) – Atlanta Braves – OF
Until Adam Duvall cools off, he is the home run bet for the Atlanta Braves. Both Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann are worthwhile bets, as well, but Duvall makes the most sense.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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