Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Tonight’s eight-game MLB slate is not ideal for home run predictions, but the Boston Red Sox are always a good team to target on Monkey Knife Fight. Andrew Kittredge is scheduled to start the game for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is currently allowing 1.6 HR/9. His fly ball rate is average, and his hard hit rate is sitting at 50%. Kittredge should only see two or three innings of work before Ryan Yarbrough enters the game. Yarbrough has been solid this season, sporting a 2.87 ERA over his last 10 games, and it is worth mentioning that Kittredge is a right-handed pitcher, while Yarbrough is left-handed. This creates problems for the Red Sox lineup, but even so, Vegas has the game set at 11 total runs. The Red Sox are -143 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.1. So, who should fantasy owners be targeting tonight? As always, start with Mookie Betts. Betts has reverse splits against right-handed pitching, entering the game with 0.043 ISO and 0.022 wOBA differentials, but he hits left-handed pitching well, as well. Betts is averaging 0.044 HR/AB, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH. Combine that with his 45% fly ball rate and 43% hard hit rate, and he is a lock. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Rafael Devers. Devers has great splits against right-handed pitching, so he will have to make the most of his early-game opportunities. He will enter tonight’s game with 0.104 ISO and 0.090 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. Finally, round out the lineup with J.D. Martinez. Martinez has great splits against left-handed pitching, so he will benefit from the switch to Yarbrough. With 0.058 HR/AB, he is the Red Sox most powerful hitter, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Martinez is expected to hit fourth tonight.
Recommended Batters: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco
Home Run Prop Bet:
Mookie Betts (TBA) – Boston Red Sox – OF
With the Tampa Bay Rays expected to change from the right-handed Andrew Kittredge to the left-handed Ryan Yarbrough within two or three innings of the start of the game, it makes the most sense to bet on Mookie Betts. He does not rely heavily on splits, and he is expected to hit leadoff. His advanced metrics are better than both Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez, as well.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
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*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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