Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Tonight, I’ll be in Philadelphia at the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies. Tyler Beede is scheduled to take the mound for the Giants, squaring off against Drew Smyly and company. Despite Smyly’s 3.0 HR/9 ratio, his advanced metrics suggest that home runs are not all that likely. In the last 15 days, he has a ground ball rate over 50%, and a fly ball rate under 25%. Beede, on the other hand, sports a 1.7 HR/9 to go along with his fly ball rate over 40% and hard hit rate over 50%. The Phillies have more power scattered throughout their lineup, as well, so target them on Monkey Knife Fight. To start, lock in Bryce Harper. He enters tonight’s game with a positive 0.036 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching, and he is averaging 0.043 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs. In the last 15 days, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 94 MPH, and his hard hit rate is over 40%. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Rhys Hoskins. He is leading the Phillies’ squad in HR/AB at 0.059. He enters tonight’s game with a 0.031 ISO differential, and in the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH. Hoskins’ fly ball rate is over 55%, and his hard hit rate is currently sitting right at 40%. Finally, round out the lineup with Maikel Franco. Franco is expected to hit seventh tonight for the Phillies, and in the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. He has been struggling heavily in his last 10 games, but Beede struggles away from home, and Franco has upside tonight. His 0.055 ISO and 0.024 wOBA differentials should help, as well.
Recommended Batters: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco
Home Run Prop Bet:
Bryce Harper (+220) – Philadelphia Phillies – OF
Bryce Harper has the best advanced metrics, and Rhys Hoskins is not available on MyBookie. Maikel Franco has +260 betting odds to take Tyler Beede deep, but he has been struggling too heavily of recent to trust him. Harper is the only batter worth considering as a solo bet. However, as an added bonus bet, consider Hoskins at over 1.5 total bases (+105).
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Bryce Harper (OVER 9.0)
If Bryce Harper hits a home run tonight, he will go well over 9 total fantasy points tonight. He has great upside tonight.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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