Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Tonight is all about deductive reasoning. If Adrian Sampson is on the mound for the Texas Rangers, target the opposing team. Adrian Sampson is on the mound for the Texas Ranger. Thus, target the opposing team. Sampson has been horrendous this season, and in his last 10 games (7 starts), he has an ERA of 6.60, allowing 12 home runs in 43.2 innings pitched. On the season, he has an average batted ball distance of 222 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. The Oakland Athletics are not typically a team to target in Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest, but this is an exception. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and the Athletics are -180 favorites with Homer Bailey on the mound. That gives them an implied run total of 5.5. Start with the leadoff hitter, Marcus Semien. In the last 15 days, Semien has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 34%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. He has 4 extra-base hits in his last 10 games, and the home run upside is there. Next, move down in the batting order to Matt Olson. Olson is expected to hit third, and he is averaging 0.062 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Olson has 21 home runs on the season, and he should see that number increase shortly. Finally, round out the lineup with Khris Davis. Davis leads the Athletics in HR/AB with 0.069. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Davis has been struggling, but his advanced metrics suggest that he will turn it around soon. This is a risky recommendation, but with Sampson on the mound, it is hard to ignore.
Recommended Batters: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Khris Davis
Home Run Prop Bet:
Marcus Semien (+325) – Oakland Athletics – SS
I really wanted to recommend Khris Davis here, but his odds to hit a home run tonight are just not wide enough. Marcus Semien makes more sense. He has been better at the plate of recent, his advanced metrics are solid, and his odds are wider. Plus, he is hitting leadoff, so he might get one extra at-bat compared to Davis. Matt Olson’s odds are entirely too tight, so avoid him entirely as a solo bet.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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