Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
San Diego Padres at New York Mets
Dinelson Lamet is scheduled to take the mound for the San Diego Padres, and despite his small sample size, it makes a lot of sense to attack him in Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest. He is currently allowing 2.6 HR/9, and Vegas has tonight’s game set at 8.5 total runs. Noah Syndergaard and the New York Mets are -149 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 4.7. In the last 15 days, Lamet has an average batted ball distance of 228 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, and a fly ball rate of 40%. The Mets are going to find home run success, but who? Well, start with Michael Conforto. He is expected to hit second tonight in the Mets’ batting order, and he is hitting 0.06 HR/AB. He has minor positive power splits, bringing 0.021 ISO and 0.057 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching into tonight’s game. He has a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40% in the last 15 days, as well. Next, roster Pete Alonso. This recommendation does not need much justification. Alonso recently won the All-Star Home Run Derby, and he is hitting 0.087 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting a terrible .114, but he still has 3 home runs. As his batting average increases, so will his home run production. Last, and definitely least, Robinson Cano has been showing better fundamentals at the plate of recent. Honestly, it is amazing that the Mets allowed him to struggle his way through the entire season without finding his way to the bench, but in his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .350 with 5 home runs. He enters tonight’s game with great 0.129 ISO and 0.029 wOBA differentials, and his advanced metrics backup his recent successes. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 243 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 35%. One of these three recommendations should find success.
Recommended Batters: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano
Home Run Prop Bet:
Michael Conforto (TBA) – New York Mets – OF
If Robinson Cano’s odds are significantly wider than those of Michael Conforto, bet on him. If those odds are relatively similar, bet on Conforto. Conforto has better overall advanced metrics, and despite not having the same success as Cano of recent, he should start to see an uptick in home run production. As for Pete Alonso, avoid him until he proves he can increase his batting average.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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