Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
The Texas Rangers are scheduled to start Adrian Sampson tonight, who currently possesses a 4.92 ERA, 6-6 record, and 1.45 WHIP. Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners are slight betting favorites at -123, and Vegas has the total runs set at 9.5, giving the Mariners an implied run total of 5.0. In the last 15 days, Sampson is allowing an average batted ball distance of 239 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 55%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. His 1.9 HR/9 ratio is second worst on tonight’s MLB slate, as well. Dan Vogelbach makes a lot of sense tonight against the right-handed Sampson. He enters tonight’s game with 0.210 ISO and 0.201 wOBA differentials. With 0.076 HR/AB, he clearly possesses quite a bit of power, and in his last 10 games, despite a horrible .176 batting average, he has 3 home runs and 9 RBIs. His advanced metrics are solid with an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Generally speaking, catchers should be avoided when predicting home runs, but Omar Narvaez is an exception. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .394 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. He is averaging 0.052 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are also solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 260 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. He also has a slight splits advantage, bringing 0.031 ISO and 0.023 wOBA differentials into tonight’s contest. Finally, Tim Beckham, despite hitting seventh for the Mariners tonight, has quite a bit of upside. He enters the game with 0.037 ISO and 0.036 wOBA differentials, and he is averaging 0.05 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .333 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The advanced metrics look great for all three of these recommendations, and one of them should capitalize on the great matchup tonight.
Recommended Batters: Dan Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez, Tim Beckham
Home Run Prop Bet:
Omar Narvaez (TBA) – Seattle Mariners – C
All three recommendations have great advanced metrics tonight, but Omar Narvaez has the hottest bat currently. His performances over his last 10 games is tough to ignore. His odds should not be that much tighter than those of Dan Vogelbach and Tim Beckham, so bet on him while he is still seeing the ball well.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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