Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Jhoulys Chacin is scheduled to take the mound tonight for the Milwaukee Brewers in their game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Overall, Vegas is predicting a rather high-scoring affair at 10.5 total runs. The Diamondbacks are +117 betting underdogs, giving them an implied run total of 5.0. Taylor Clarke allows 2.1 HR/9, so he is worth targeting in Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest, but Chacin, who allows 1.5 HR/9, has advanced metrics worth attacking, as well. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 229 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. Arizona has a hitter-friendly stadium, and home runs are bound to happen in this game. Start with Ketel Marte. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate approaching 40%. With 0.046 HR/AB, he has shown power flashes throughout the season, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .400 with 1 home run and 6 RBIs. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Eduardo Escobar. He is hitting 0.047 HR/AB, barely better than Marte, and his advanced metrics are solid, as well. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 237 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate exactly at 50%. With 3 home runs in his last 10 games, Escobar clearly has power. Finally, no lineup is complete without Christian Walker. Walker is hitting .278 in his last 10 games with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. He enters tonight’s game with 0.048 ISO and 0.059 wOBA differentials against the right-handed Chacin, and his advanced metrics are solid, as well. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 36%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. One of these three players should be able to find success tonight.
Recommended Batters: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker
Home Run Prop Bet:
Christian Walker (+250) – Arizona Diamondbacks – 1B
Christian Walker has slightly tighter odds to hit a home run tonight than both Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar, but for good reason. His advanced metrics are the most solid. At +250, there is enough value to justify this recommendation on MyBookie.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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