Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Matt Harvey is scheduled to take the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and the Houston Astros are a great team to target against a pitcher that struggles with giving up home runs. Harvey is currently allowing 1.9 HR/9, the most of any pitcher expected to start tonight. His year-long fly ball rate sits at around 35%, and his hard hit rate over the last 15 days is over 30%. Vegas has the run total for this game set at 10, and Wade Miley and the Astros are -147 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. Selecting only three batters is tough, but start with George Springer. Over the last 15 days, Springer has an average batted ball distance over 200 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. He is expected to hit leadoff tonight, per usual, and with 0.063 HR/AB, he has consistently shown his power upside. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .244 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs. Next, move down two spots in the batting order to Alex Bregman. Bregman has been recommended in this article (probably) more than anyone in the league. He is expected to hit third for the Astros, and he recently participated in the home run derby. He is hitting 0.062 HR/AB, and his ISO differential tonight is 0.056 against the right-handed Harvey. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 233 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate of 65%. His advanced metrics are outstanding, making him a lock on Monkey Knife Fight. Finally, move down two more spots in the batting order to Yordan Alvarez. ‘Air Yordan’ is hitting 0.097 HR/AB, and his wOBA differential is 0.044 headed into this game against right-handed pitching. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .350 with 2 home runs and 11 RBIs. Apparently, he is still dealing with a left knee injury, but it hasn’t kept him from playing recently, so there shouldn’t be any reason to worry.
Recommended Batters: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Alex Bregman (+280) – Houston Astros – 3B
Surprisingly enough, Alex Bregman has wider odds to hit a home run tonight than both George Springer and Yordan Alvarez. He also has the best advanced metrics by a mile, so this recommendation is definite. Bregman is easily the best solo bet on MyBookie.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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