Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
The San Francisco Giants are travelling to Coors Field today (and tonight) to square off against the Colorado Rockies. That late game is definitely in play over at Monkey Knife Fight, but there is a little bit more upside to be had in Los Angeles. The Houston Astros, Josh James, Framber Valdez, and crew are ready (or not) to face off against the Angels and Griffin Canning. So, attack Valdez, right? Wrong. Wait, don’t click out of the article just yet; Canning is allowing 1.8 HR/9, and the Astros are expected to score 5.0 runs tonight via Vegas. Oh, you’re interested again? Well, let’s continue. Canning, despite his impressive numbers thus far this season, has allowed an average batted ball distance of 297 feet over the last 15 days. His average exit velocity on batted balls is 97 MPH, and 96 MPH is generally seen as the mark that batters should aim for if they’re looking for extra-base hits. His fly ball rate is a decent 36%, and his hard hit rate is up over 50%. The Astros come preloaded with a ton of power, and even though it seems odd, targeting the Astros on a night where they face a solid pitcher (and the Rockies are at home… TWICE) is the correct move. Begin lineup construction with Alex Bregman. Bregman, a Home Run Derby participant, obviously has a lot of power. He is hitting 0.063 HR/AB, and he is expected to hit third for the Astros tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 245 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 60%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. His advanced metrics are the best on the Astros’ team, and he is a lock. Next, move down two spots in the batting order to ‘Air Yordon’. Yordan Alvarez gets a lefty-versus-righty matchup tonight, and he is hitting 0.106 HR/AB, which leads the Astros’ team. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, which is more likely due to his 27% fly ball rate than his 97 MPH average exit velocity. He is hitting the ball hard, as his 59% hard hit rate suggests; he just needs to get under it a little more. The home runs are going to start coming, and when they do, they won’t stop coming. Am I right, Steve Harwell? We might even venture to say that Alvarez is going to … smash … the ball tonight. Anyway, moving on. Yulieski Gurriel is worth consideration to round out the lineup. He is expected to hit sixth tonight, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 210 feet, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. With 0.038 HR/AB, he doesn’t have as much upside as Bregman or Alvarez, but he has been performing well of recent, and he is worth a flier. After all, in his last 10 games, he is a batting average just under .400 with 8 home runs. Good luck, everyone!
Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Yulieski Gurriel
Home Run Prop Bet:
Yulieski Gurriel (TBA) – Houston Astros – 3B
This recommendation is completely contingent on Yulieski Gurriel having significantly wider odds to hit a home run tonight than Alex Bregman. If Bregman has similar odds, bet him. There is, however, likely value to be had on Gurriel, especially with his solid advanced metrics.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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