Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
It is rare that the team travelling to Texas to square off against the Rangers is the team to target for home run potential. The Rangers tend to be targeted at home, but with Adrian Sampson on the mound, the Oakland Athletics have quite a bit of upside. Sampson is sporting a 1.5 HR/9 rate in a game that Vegas has set at 10.5 total runs. Chris Bassitt and the A’s are -125 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. Most importantly, in his last two starts, Sampson is allowing an average batted ball distance of 224 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate approaching 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The natural place to begin is with the leadoff hitter, and Marcus Semien has been playing at a ridiculous level over his last 10 games. He is hitting just south of .275 with four home runs and nine RBIs. On the season, he has a fly ball rate over 30% combined with a hard hit rate of 37%. His soft hit rate is a lowly 18%. Eight of his nine home runs this season come against right-handed pitching, so he will see a power advantage against the right-handed Sampson, as well. Next, move to Matt Chapman. Chapman is hitting over .250 in his last 10 games with three home runs and five RBIs. He has 16 home runs on the season, and his fly ball rate is just under 40%. Combine that with a hard hit rate over 40%, and Chapman has all the makings of someone that has the potential to go yard. His soft hit rate is also very low at 14%. Against right-handed pitching, he is hitting .272 on the season, compared to .235 against left-handed pitching. Along with that, 10 of his 16 home runs have come against righties. Finally, Khris Davis, despite his poor performances of recent, must be used. He is one of the more powerful batters in the league, and his fly ball rate is over 40% on the season. His hard hit rate is 44%, and his soft hit rate is all the way down at 12%. He is better against left-handed pitching, but the Oakland Athletics’ lineup does not contain too many great power hitters, so the split statistics will have to be ignored. The A’s are going to score tonight, and home runs are bound to happen against a pitcher of Sampson’s caliber.
Recommended Batters: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
Home Run Prop Bet:
Marcus Semien (TBA) – Oakland Athletics – SS
If Adrian Sampson was a left-handed pitcher, the recommendation would be different, but he isn’t. Marcus Semien has been on a power streak over the last few games, and it would be wise to continue to follow the trend based on his advanced metrics. His odds tend to be wide for home run prop bets, as well, due to his position not typically being seen as one which generates power hitters.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Marcus Semien, Khris Davis (OVER 9.0, 9.5)
Both Marcus Semien and Khris Davis are listed on PrizePicks for the earlier 2:05 PM EST game. With Joe Palumbo on the mound, do not hesitate to take the OVER. Semien is the safer bet, but rostering both of them for 2.5x the original bet is recommended. Semien has been hot of recent, as has been shown above, and Davis is hitting at the heart of a lineup projected to score over five runs tonight. As an added bonus, Davis gets a left-handed pitcher, which increases his power potential.
Check back for tonight’s game after the completion of the first part of the A’s doubleheader.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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