Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Does this recommendation surprise anyone? The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Rookie Davis is scheduled to take the mound. Despite his low fly ball rate in his last four games (zero starts), Davis is allowing 2.3 HR/9. This will be his first start of the 2019 campaign, after dealing with a torn labrum and bone spurs in 2017. He missed the entire 2018 season. Unfortunately for Davis, the Milwaukee Brewers are the third best team in the league at hitting home runs. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and Brandon Woodruff is a -250 favorite, giving the Brewers an implied run total of 6.0. So, when targeting the Brewers, where should we start? That’s a silly question. The answer is Christian Yelich. There is no good reason to delve into advanced metrics. Yelich is a home run hitting machine, and he has 23 on the season. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .350 with three home runs and nine RBIs. Do not avoid him. Next, look toward Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is having a great season, and he has 18 home runs to date. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with six home runs and eight RBIs. Most of that production has to do with his higher fly ball rate, which currently sits over 50%. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 45%. As an added bonus, Moustakas enters tonight’s game with a 0.046 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Finally, Yasmani Grandal makes a lot of sense when attempting to predict home runs. He is hitting 0.06 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 249 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. Both him and Moustakas have very similar advanced metrics. Grandal has 13 home runs on the season, 4 of which came in his last 10 games. He is hitting over .300 during that same time span, as well. The Brewers are going to stomp the Pirates tonight, and home runs are bound to be sprinkled in.
Recommended Batters: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
Home Run Prop Bet:
Christian Yelich (+195) – Milwaukee Brewers – OF
Again, does this recommendation surprise anyone? Christian Yelich is doing unbelievable things at the plate right now, and the odds on both Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal to hit home runs tonight are not that much wider than Yelich’s +195. Yelich is the safer, better bet.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, the Milwaukee Brewers are not listed on PrizePicks. That will likely change throughout the day, so double-check after 5:00 PM EST. If any of the above mentioned players are listed, bet the OVER.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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