*Due to a rain delay, the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals game was postponed. That game is being played today. The same analysis applies, and these recommendations remain the same. PrizePicks has been updated, as the Cardinals are posted for today’s game.*
Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Anthony DeSclafani is scheduled to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals, and despite his lower fly ball rate (29%), he is a great pitcher to target for opposing home runs. Currently, DeSclafani is allowing 2.0 HR/9, and Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs. Dakota Hudson is a -140 favorite, giving the Cardinals an implied run total of 5.2. The weather is going to be over 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out toward center field, which is great for hitters and terrible for DeSclafani. The Cardinals should be able to take advantage of the surrounding circumstances. So, who should be rostered? Well, start with Matt Carpenter. He is an absolute lock tonight. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .400 with three home runs. After a poor start to the season, he finally found his groove at the plate. With 0.063 HR/AB, Carpenter is the best home run hitter on the Cardinals’ team. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 253 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. I doubled down here by recommending Carpenter on the ‘Bales of the Bales’ article, and for great reason. Next, Paul Goldschmidt is pretty obvious. He is hitting just under .400 in his last 10 games, as well, with two home runs. He has 12 home runs on the season, and he is hitting 0.062 per at-bat. He also gets a good ISO differential at 0.068 against right-handed pitching. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 217 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Finally, Marcell Ozuna has far too much power to pass on him in a home run predicting contest. Ozuna is hitting 0.058 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. He is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games with 2 home runs. With 16 home runs on the season, Ozuna has consistently shown his power. One of these three is bound to square the ball up tonight.
Recommended Batters: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
Home Run Prop Bet:
Matt Carpenter (TBA) – St. Louis Cardinals – 3B
Did I mention that I’m on Matt Carpenter tonight? Well, I am! His advanced metrics are nearly perfect for home run upside. He should have rather wide odds, as well, considering he is constantly overlooked by DraftKings and the public.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna (OVER 8.5, 7.5)
Bet the OVER on both Paul Goldschmidt at 8.5 fantasy points and Marcell Ozuna at 7.5 fantasy points to win 2.5x the original bet.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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