Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
The Tampa Bay Rays are not typically seen as a home-run-friendly team, hitting 73 thus far this season, which ranks 20th in the league. However, with Ryan Carpenter on the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight, and Vegas setting this game at 8.5 runs, targeting the Rays makes sense. Blake Snell is a -270 favorite, which gives the Rays an implied run total of 5.4. Carpenter is allowing 3.1 HR/9, which is obviously a skewed statistic, but over the course of his career, both in the minor leagues and major league, he is surrendering 1.1 HR/9. With 14 home runs in 41.1 innings pitched at the major league level, it is clear that Carpenter struggles with the long ball. In his last two games, he is giving up a 44% fly ball rate and 41% hard hit rate. The Rays should be able to take advantage. It is difficult to find fly ball hitters in the Rays’ batting order, but begin with Avisail Garcia. He is dealing with a tight left hamstring, so be sure to double-check his injury status prior to the start of the game. With 0.059 HR/AB, he is one of the more powerful bats the Rays have. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 232 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. Garcia, if he takes the field, is a lock. Next, Mike Zunino is a notorious fly ball hitter, which is great considering the circumstances tonight. Granted, he only has three home runs on the season, but the advanced metrics are there. His 12-month average is over 40% for both fly balls and hard hits. He is expected to hit fifth for the Rays tonight, and he is a very sneaky recommendation. Finally, Christian Arroyo deserves a look. He is hitting 0.061 HR/AB, which is the highest on the Rays’ team, and despite being expected to hit seventh in the batting order, he has been playing rather well of recent. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .250 with four extra base hits and seven RBIs. Over the last 15 days, he an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. This is definitely a risky prediction, but the Rays, a team that tends to not hit home runs, should find success against Carpenter tonight. Trust the process, folks. After all, we did just hit on the Seattle Mariners last night. You did see the tweet last night, didn’t you? If not, follow DFS Karma already! And while you’re at it, click the notification button, so you never miss any of our tweets.
Recommended Batters: Avisail Garcia, Mike Zunino, Christian Arroyo
Home Run Prop Bet:
Avisail Garcia (TBA) – Tampa Bay Rays – OF
Both Mike Zunino and Christian Arroyo are not currently displaying enough power to warrant consideration on a solo bet. Rather, bet Avisail Garcia on MyBookie. He has great advanced metrics, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .400 with three home runs and eight RBIs. Again, he has been dealing with a hamstring injury, so double-check that injury status before the start of the game. Don’t worry; if he doesn’t play, the bet will get cancelled.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Austin Meadows, Blake Snell, Willy Adames (OVER 10.0, 43.5, 6.5)
Currently, the players recommended above are not listed on PrizePicks. However, the Tampa Bay Rays, as a team, are the reason for those recommendations. This should be a rather high-scoring game in their favor. For that reason, bet the OVER on Austin Meadows at 10.0 fantasy points, Blake Snell at 43.5 fantasy points, and Willy Adames at 6.5 fantasy points.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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