Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
After two days of the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers blasting home run after home run, the Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby contest finally gets interesting again. Yes, the Dodgers are still playing in Coors Field, but Jon Gray is not the pitcher to pick on tonight. His 21% fly ball rate is the second lowest on tonight’s MLB slate, and his 59% ground ball rate is the same on the other end of the spectrum. Rather, move on from Colorado. The home run pot of gold is located in Houston tonight. Yusei Kikuchi and the Seattle Mariners square off against Justin Verlander and the Astros. Obviously, do not attack Verlander. Kikuchi, on the other hand, has a 33% fly ball rate, and the Astros (6.3) are expected to score just under the same amount of runs as the Dodgers (6.7). As an added bonus, he is allowing 1.9 HR/9. So, which Astros are going to give away souvenir balls tonight? Well, just move down the expected batting order. George Springer is expected to hit leadoff, and he is currently averaging 0.058 home runs per at-bat. In the last 15 days, much of which Springer has been injured during, he has an average batted ball distance of 212 feet, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. Since his return, Springer has 1 home run in 15 at-bats. His power has been on full display all season long, and that is not going to change now. Next, move down one spot to Jose Altuve. Altuve is not one of the more powerful hitters on the Astros’ squad, but he is averaging 0.041 home runs per at-bat. Most importantly, he has great positive power splits against left-handed pitching, so he will enter tonight’s game with 0.179 ISO and 0.115 wOBA differentials. Finally, round out the lineup with Alex Bregman. Bregman is expected to hit third and leads the Astros with 0.068 home runs per at-bat. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 224 feet, an average exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. That has translated well to his real-world performances, as Bregman is hitting .300 in his last 10 games with 3 home runs and 4 RBIs. The Astros are going to score tonight, and one of these three is likely to hit the bomb that MKF players need.
Recommended Batters: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
Home Run Prop Bet:
Jose Altuve (TBA) – Houston Astros – 2B
Jose Altuve is going to have odds that are much wider than those of George Springer and Alex Bregman. If bettors are looking to play it safe, bet on Bregman. However, if bettors are looking for the most upside under favorable circumstances, Altuve gets a great splits matchup against Yusei Kikuchi in a game that should never stop scoring. He is worth the risk tonight.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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