Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Vargas is scheduled to take the mound for the New York Mets tonight, and the Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to successfully defend their stadium for what feels like the first time in a long time. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and Nick Pivetta and company are -150 betting favorites, giving the Phillies an implied run total of 5.8. Earlier this morning, it was higher than six. Vargas allows 1.1 HR/9, but more importantly, he struggles with a terrible 44% fly ball rate, along with a 36% hard hit rate. In his last 3 games, he is allowing an average batted ball distance over 220 feet, and an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH. The Phillies have an explosive offense, as long as they’re playing in Philadelphia, and tonight, the home runs should come in bunches. So, the usual question: where to start? Scott Kingery has great advanced metrics right now, and despite his low HR/AB of 0.037, he makes a lot of sense. He is expected to leadoff for the Phillies, giving him an added at-bat bonus, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 262 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of 55%. That has translated well to the real world, as he is hitting .333 with 2 home runs in his last 10 games. Next, move down to Bryce Harper. Harper is finally starting to look like the player that the Phillies paid a trillion dollars. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.05 ISO and 0.008 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 246 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. Anyone that watches baseball knows of Harper’s power. Finally, round out the lineup with Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins is the best bet to hit a home run tonight. He is currently averaging 0.063 home runs per at-bat, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are gold. He has an average batted ball distance of 254 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 65%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. There is no reason to avoid him. One of these three players should get the job done over at Monkey Knife Fight tonight.
Recommended Batters: Scott Kingery, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
Home Run Prop Bet:
Rhys Hoskins (TBA) – Philadelphia Phillies – 1B
Here’s a fun story for the Karma readership (please, feel free to verify with Justin): A couple of years ago, Justin and I went to see the Reading Phillies play. Rhys Hoskins was on the team. I was sending a Snapchat to a friend, as we all do at fun events we want to share with people who can’t also be attending those events, and I happened to catch Hoskins striking out on a terrible pitch. Justin found his Snapchat username on Twitter, and I sent the video to him. Ever since, he has been smoking the ball. I don’t want to say I’m the reason, but I’m the reason. Anyway, he has the best advanced metrics to hit a home run tonight, so feel free to bet on him over at MyBookie.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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