Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
This is not a drill. I repeat, this is not a drill. The wind will be blowing out at around 12 MPH in Chicago tonight, which is perfect for home runs. Max Fried will take the mound for the Atlanta Braves, and he is significantly more talented, or at least more developed, than Adbert Alzolay. Alzolay will be making his first career start for the Cubs, and it could not happen on a worse day, honestly. The weather will favor batters. Vegas has this game set at 12 total runs, and the money line is dead even, giving the Braves an implied run total of 6.1. On top of the poor weather, Alzolay has been prone to the long ball, surrendering 2.3 HR/9. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 203 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. The Braves should take advantage. We don’t have to ask where to start with the Braves’ lineup; the answer is Ronald Acuna. There is no reason to post advanced metrics or provide argumentation for why Acuna should be rostered. He is a clear lock. Next, move down to the four-hole to Josh Donaldson. Since returning from injury, Donaldson has been on fire. In his last 10 games, he is hitting slightly under .400 with 6 home runs and 10 RBIs. He gets minor positive power splits tonight against right-handed pitching, and in the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 223 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 35%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. As far as power is concerned, it doesn’t get much better than Donaldson. Finally, round out the group with Brian McCann. McCann is great against right-handed pitching, entering tonight’s game with incredible 0.181 ISO and 0.214 wOBA differentials. He is hitting 0.054 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics have been great. He has an average batted ball distance of 229 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. McCann is sneaky tonight, but the stars are aligned.
Recommended Batters: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann
Home Run Prop Bet:
Brian McCann (+245) – Atlanta Braves – C
As mentioned above, Brian McCann has incredible power splits against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics indicate that he should start hitting more home runs shortly. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with 4 home runs, and his home run odds are the widest of the 3. The Braves’ catcher makes the most sense as a solo bet.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
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*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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