Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
No, this is not the exact same article as yesterday, but it is close. There are only five games starting after 7PM EST tonight, so the Karma readership is going to have to deal with a semi-boring recommendation. Tyler Beede gets a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Arizona, which happens to be a very home-run-friendly stadium, but Beede looked great in his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and quite frankly, I’m scared to attack him. He has the skill set to be a great pitcher, and he could’ve figured it out finally. Mike Foltynewicz will likely struggle against the Washington Nationals in Washington, but his ground ball rate is just not as low as I’d like it to be in order to recommend the Nationals. That leaves Odrisamer Despaigne and the Chicago White Sox against the Texas Rangers, a matchup that everyone reading this article should be quite familiar with by now, and it has been working, so why stray? Despaigne is allowing 1.2 HR/9, but more importantly, Vegas has this game set at 11 total runs, 6.5 of which are in the Rangers’ favor, as Lance Lynn enters tonight’s game as a -190 betting favorite. In his last 2 starts, Despaigne is allowing a 47% fly ball rate, which has resulted in an average batted ball distance of 224 feet. The Rangers should take advantage, once again, of their great matchup against the White Sox. So, who to roster? Well, to be quite honest with everyone, roster the same three players that were recommended yesterday, and for the exact same reasons. Despaigne is a right-handed pitcher, so the left-handed batters will continue to utilize their positive power splits, and their spots in the batting order are expected to be the same. Some readers might find this strategy to be ‘cheap’ in some way, but when Willie Calhoun, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Rougned Odor hit a home run tonight, it’ll be anything but ‘cheap’, if you catch my drift. It should be noted that Asdrubal Cabrera is in the middle of a four-game suspension contestation. He should still be in the lineup tonight, though.
Recommended Batters: Willie Calhoun, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor
Home Run Prop Bet:
Willie Calhoun (+275) – Texas Rangers – OF
In the spirit of reconstructing yesterday’s article exactly, continue to bet on Willie Calhoun. He wasn’t the one to hit a home run yesterday, but his advanced metrics remain the best. He makes the most sense over at MyBookie based on odds value.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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