Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Javier Baez hit a home run last night, so the Chicago Cubs’ recommendation worked out. Tonight, we are traveling to Texas to see where the home run value is located in their lineup. The Rangers are scheduled to square off against the Chicago White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez, who has been struggling heavily over his last few games. He is allowing 1.7 HR/9, and Vegas has this game set at 11.5 total runs. Ariel Jurado and company are the betting favorites at -135, giving the Rangers an implied run total of 6.3, the highest on the slate. The weather in Texas is going to be great, as the temperature should remain over 90 degrees for most of the game, and the wind is blowing 15 MPH from right field. In his last 2 games, Lopez has an average batted ball distance of 226 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate pushing 40%, and a hard hit rate doing much of the same. The Rangers are an obvious bet to score runs tonight, and the ball should travel well, but who is going to get the job done? Well, start with Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is only hitting 0.037 HR/AB, but he enters tonight’s game with great 0.142 ISO and 0.161 wOBA differentials. On top of that, his advanced metrics are outstanding. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 221 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 89 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate identical to his fly ball rate. No other Ranger stepping onto the field tonight has better metrics. Next, move down one spot to Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera hit a home run when recommended a few days ago, so it would be in bad taste to leave him off this recommendation list. He has solid advanced metrics, most notably his 41% hard hit rate, and he is hitting 0.043 HR/AB, the second most on the Rangers’ team. He also enters tonight’s contest with positive 0.143 ISO and 0.067 wOBA differentials. Finally, round out the lineup with the Rangers’ most powerful bat, Rougned Odor. He has decent 0.062 ISO and 0.009 wOBA differentials against the right-handed Lopez, and he is hitting 0.046 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate and hard hit rate of 38%. The top of the Rangers’ lineup is rather weak compared to the back end, so attacking the back end works best for home run predictions.
Recommended Batters: Willie Calhoun, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor
Home Run Prop Bet:
Willie Calhoun (+250) – Texas Rangers – OF
As mentioned above, Willie Calhoun has the best advanced metrics on the Texas Rangers’ squad. There is no reason to avoid him when it comes to hitting home runs, despite his general lack of power. As soon as the ball starts coming off of his bat a little bit harder, it will be leaving the park. Even if he doesn’t square the ball up better tonight, the wind and heat could carry it out.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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