Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
After the injury to Noah Syndergaard, the New York Mets were, yet again, scrambling to find a replacement pitcher. This time, Walker Lockett will take the mound, and the Chicago Cubs should be licking their chops at the prospect of squaring off against the 25-year-old right-hander from Jacksonville, Florida. Lockett has a horrendous 3.2 HR/9 ratio, and Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs. The Cubs are currently -150 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.0. Due to a lack of major league performances, Walker does not have adequate advanced metrics, but based on his home run susceptibility, it is likely that his fly ball rate is rather high, as well as his hard hit rate. The Cubs are the team to target tonight. In targeting the Cubs, first look toward their leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber will enter tonight’s game with positive 0.053 ISO and 0.021 wOBA differentials, and his 0.064 HR/AB ratio is the highest on the team. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 242 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate of 44%. He is a must roster tonight when attempting to predict which Cubs’ players will crush the long ball. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Kris Bryant. He is hitting 0.049 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are very solid, especially his fly ball rate. Anthony Rizzo can be used in this spot, but Bryant has the better fly ball rate, despite having a worse hard hit rate, and getting the ball in the air is half the battle. Over his last 13 games, Bryant has an average batted ball distance of 206 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, and a fly ball rate just under 40%. He is hitting second, so he should see an extra at-bat compared to the hitters toward the bottom of the order. Finally, Javier Baez can fill out the roster. He is hitting 0.055 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are also solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 211 feet, an average batted ball distance of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. Between these three batters, the Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby contest should be rather easy to cash in.
Recommended Batters: Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
Home Run Prop Bet:
Kyle Schwarber (+265) – Chicago Cubs – OF
Kyle Schwarber has the perfect combination of positive power splits, advanced metrics, and real-world batting success right now. His matchup against Walker Lockett is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and he should make the most of it. Schwarber is all but a lock to hit a home run tonight.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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