Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Jose Ramirez blasted a home run last night, so why not return to the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers series tonight? Joe Palumbo is scheduled to take the mound for the Texas Rangers, and the 24-year-old minor league pitcher is likely to struggle. In fact, he is expected to struggle so much so that the Rangers are underdogs against the Indians with Adam Plutko expected to start. Even so, Plutko is a proven home run liability, so the Rangers are the team to target tonight. Plutko is allowing 2.5 HR/9, and Vegas currently has this upcoming game set at 10.5 total runs. As previously mentioned, the Indians are -110 favorites, giving the Rangers an implied run total of 5.2. The weather is expected to be very problematic for pitchers, as well. It will be just under 90 degrees with wind blowing 12 MPH from right field. Most importantly, however, Plutko’s advanced statistics show his struggle to keep the ball down. He is sporting an average batted ball distance of 227 feet with a fly ball rate over 50% in his last two starts. The Rangers are loaded with power, and home runs are bound to happen tonight. So, who should Monkey Knife Fight players be targeting? Well, these recommendations are going to sound slightly odd, but trust the advanced metrics and surrounding circumstances. First, look toward the struggling Asdrubal Cabrera, as he should be able to turn around his sub-.200 batting average (in his last 10 games) soon. Cabrera has 1 home run in his last 10 games, but he is hitting 0.042 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 202 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 30%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. Cabrera’s batted ball luck indicator suggests he will start producing at a higher level shortly. Next, Rougned Odor makes quite a bit of sense. He is leading the Rangers’ squad with 0.047 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 210 feet. Combine that with his 90 MPH average exit velocity on those batted balls, 38% fly ball rate, and 35% hard hit rate, and he is the most likely Ranger to homer tonight. Finally, fill out the roster with Ronald Guzman. Guzman has struggled this season, but at home, he is hitting over .250 with an OBP of .325. He is hitting 0.043 HR/AB, and he will enter tonight’s game with great 0.113 ISO and 0.135 wOBA differentials. His plus matchup against Plutko makes him an interesting option for a home run tonight.
Recommended Batters: Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman
Home Run Prop Bet:
Rougned Odor (TBA) – Texas Rangers – 2B
As mentioned above, Rougned Odor is the most likely of the Texas Rangers’ player to hit a home run tonight. While Ronald Guzman probably has the widest odds, his advanced metrics are not good enough to recommend him over Odor. Asdrubal Cabrera is a decent recommendation here, but his struggles could continue, and it looks like Odor is on the upswing.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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