Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tonight is going to be jam packed with scoring and home runs, so this article could head in a lot of different directions. Luckily, I’m the best in the world at what I do, so whatever direction I head in will be the correct one. That said, we are off to Los Angeles. The Dodgers are scheduled to square off against the San Francisco Giants and Tyler Beede. Beede has been a disappointment to the Giants’ franchise this season, as he currently sports an 8.06 ERA, 0-2 record, and 2.06 WHIP. He is also allowing 2.0 HR/9, which is the second most of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. Beede has strikeout potential, but with an average batted ball distance of 231 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 40%, he is almost unusable in all betting and fantasy formats, as well as a clear target for attack. So, which Dodgers are worth consideration tonight? Well, Vegas has this game set at 8.5 total runs, and the Dodgers are -235 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.3 runs, so there are quite a few eligible options. Unfortunately, Joc Pederson has struggled far too much at the plate to use him, despite his insane power. It is best to start with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger has 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and in the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 243 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.09 ISO and 0.084 wOBA differentials, making him the most reasonable home run threat. Next, move down one spot in the expected batting order to Max Muncy. Muncy is averaging 0.077 home runs per at-bat, and he gets decent 0.017 ISO and 0.019 wOBA differentials against the right-handed Beede. Muncy is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. His advanced metrics back up this success, as he currently has an average batted ball distance of 250 feet over the last 15 days. He also sports an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Last, but not least (well, okay, maybe least of these three), is Chris Taylor. Taylor is another second base eligible player on DraftKings, and despite his lack of power comparatively speaking, he does have 1 home run in his last 10 games. Most importantly, his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 226 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. His batting average, home runs, and RBIs should start increasing soon. So, there ya have it. Roster these players on Monkey Knife Fight, and win. It’s that simple.
Recommended Batters: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor
Home Run Prop Bet:
Cody Bellinger (+245) – Los Angeles Dodgers – OF
This is a super easy recommendation. Max Muncy has odds of +240 to hit a home run, making Cody Bellinger the wider of the two. Chris Taylor is a longer shot, so much so that he currently does not have odds listed. Bellinger is the top pick regardless of odds, so take the extra +5 and lock it in.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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