Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
The New York Yankees are travelling to Chicago today to square off against the White Sox in what should be a rather high-scoring affair. J.A. Happ is scheduled to take the mound for the Yankees, and he is currently allowing 1.8 HR/9. The White Sox are only expected to score slightly over four runs, but those runs could come via the long ball. However, the Yankees are, probably obviously, the team to target. Ivan Nova is on the mound tonight for the White Sox, and he is allowing 1.6 HR/9. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and the Yankees are -180 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.5. The wind is going to blow almost 10 MPH out toward left field, and the humidity is reasonable. Jose Abreu is worth consideration against a left-handed pitcher that possesses a fly ball rate over 40%, but the Yankees have much better power hitters. Start with Didi Gregorius. He is expected to hit fifth tonight in the Yankees’ batting order, and he enters tonight’s game with 0.087 ISO and 0.016 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 221 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. With 0.051 HR/AB, Gregorius has plenty of power. Next, roster Gary Sanchez. Every time Sanchez is in the lineup, he is a home run threat. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with three home runs. On the season, he has 20 home runs, which is great for the catcher position. He also enters tonight’s game with positive power splits, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are solid. He has an average batted ball distance of 222 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Sanchez is a lock. Finally, Luke Voit makes a lot of sense tonight. He is hitting 0.077 HR/AB, so his power upside is obvious. On the season, he has 16 home runs, 2 of which came in his last 10 games. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 217 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, and a fly ball rate over 30%. His hard hit rate is slightly concerning, but Nova does not pose a threat on the mound, so it is acceptable to ignore that minor setback. This game should be filled with home runs, and these are the three best bets to secure one.
Recommended Batters: Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
Home Run Prop Bet:
Didi Gregorius (+280) – New York Yankees – SS
Didi Gregorius has the widest odds to hit a home run tonight against the Chicago White Sox and Ivan Nova, but his advanced metrics are very good. Gary Sanchez has odds that are just too close at +180, and Luke Voit’s hard hit rate under 30% is too concerning to make a solo bet on him at +220. Gregorius makes the most sense here.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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