Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox
The Washington Nationals are set to square off against the Chicago White Sox tonight in what should be a rather high-scoring affair. Patrick Corbin is looking to finally bounce back after two consecutive poor outings, and the White Sox will rely on Manny Banuelos to get the job done. Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs, and the Nationals are -180 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. Banuelos is allowing 2.5 HR/9, and in the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is approaching 60%. The weather in Chicago will be above 70 degrees, so that will be a non-factor for the most part. The Nationals are going to score, and home runs are bound to happen. So, who should bettors be targeting? Well, Anthony Rendon is the obvious pick. The Nationals are not a team known for power, ranking 17th in the league in home runs so far in 2019, but Rendon is hitting 0.051 HR/AB, and he enters tonight’s game with a positive 0.052 ISO differential against left-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just south of 60%. He is a lock. Next, Howie Kendrick is expected to hit fifth in the Nationals’ batting order, and he has 0.063 HR/AB so far this season. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. His fly ball rate is not encouraging, but one negative advanced metric is not a game changer. Finally, Brian Dozier makes for a very sneaky home run recommendation tonight. He is expected to hit sixth for the Nationals, and he is averaging 0.043 HR/AB. He has a positive 0.066 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are solid. He has an average batted ball distance of 254 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate of 60%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. The stars are aligned for Dozier, despite his lackluster season thus far. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .400 with three home runs and eight RBIs. The Nationals are not the powerful offensive force they once used to be, but tonight, it makes sense to target them for home runs.
Recommended Batters: Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier
Home Run Prop Bet:
Brian Dozier (+275) – Washington Nationals – 2B
Brian Dozier’s advanced metrics are otherworldly great, and his home run odds are rather wide, comparatively speaking. He has three home runs in his last 10 games, and it looks like he is seeing the ball well right now. He makes for an interesting one off bet on MyBookie this evening.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
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*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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