Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles
The San Francisco Giants are travelling to Baltimore to square off against Andrew Cashner and the Orioles tonight. Drew Pomeranz will take the mound for the Giants. This game is set at 9 total runs via Vegas, and the money line is close to even. The Giants have an implied run total of 4.7, while the Orioles are at 4.4. Both teams should score, as Baltimore is a hitter-friendly ballpark with expected hitter-friendly weather tonight. Pomeranz is allowing 1.7 HR/9, while Cashner is allowing 1.4 HR/9. Both teams are in play on Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest. The Orioles have a slight power advantage, so rostering two of their players and one Giant is the path of most likely success. Start with Trey Mancini, as he gets a good matchup against a left-handed pitcher, and is hitting 0.044 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 224 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 91 MPH, a 34% fly ball rate, and a 46% hard hit rate. He has double-digit home runs on the season, but zero in his last 10 games. His dry spell is bound to end soon. Next, look toward Renato Nunez, one of the most powerful hitters on the Orioles’ team. Nunez has an impressive 6 home runs in his last 10 games, and his advanced metrics do not suggest he is going to slow down any time soon. With 0.047 HR/AB, he is a lock. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 248 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of 57%. His average distance is up 37 feet from his 12-month average, his exit velocity is up 6 MPH, and his hard hit rate is up 23%. Do not avoid him. Finally, Pablo Sandoval is worth some consideration. He has seven home runs on the year, and he is hitting .288. Over his last 10 games, he cooled off significantly, but his advanced metrics remain outstanding. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 257 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 91 MPH, a 50% fly ball rate, and a 35% hard hit rate. He also enters tonight’s game with 0.183 ISO and 0.0185 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. The stars are aligned for Sandoval.
Recommended Batters: Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, Pablo Sandoval
Home Run Prop Bet:
Renato Nunez (+365) – Baltimore Orioles – 1B
Renato Nunez is far too locked in right now to avoid him as the solo recommendation on MyBookie. Do not get too fancy here.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Trey Mancini (OVER, 8.5)
Trey Mancini is a home run threat tonight, making him a great option on PrizePicks at a projected 8.5 total fantasy points. Even if he doesn’t go the distance, an extra base hit and a couple RBIs will do the trick.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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