Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies
With only five games scheduled for tonight’s MLB slate, there is no reason to get cute with these recommendations. The Baltimore Orioles are travelling to Colorado to face off against the Rockies, and Andrew Cashner is taking the mound. He has 1.4 HR/9, and this game is set at 11.5 runs via Vegas. The Rockies are -165 favorites with Kyle Freeland on the mound, giving them an implied run total of 6.6, the highest on the slate. The two most obvious power bats for the Rockies are Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but due to poor power splits against right-handed pitching, this article is going to pass on both. Rather, start with David Dahl. He enters tonight’s contest with a 0.035 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and he has 0.054 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 219 feet, an average exit velocity of 91 MPH on those batted balls, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. His fly ball rate is a bit concerning, but the ball carries in Coors Field, and Cashner is prone to the home run. Next, look toward Raimel Tapia. He is expected to leadoff tonight, and he enters the game with a 0.082 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. With only 0.039 HR/AB, he isn’t an obvious home run target, but his power against righties is much better. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 216 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 89 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 40%. Again, his fly ball rate is also rather low, but the circumstances are in the Rockies’ favor. Finally, Daniel Murphy is worthy of consideration. He has a 0.084 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and a 0.032 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 222 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate of 36%. The Rockies are going to score, and home runs are going to happen. These three are not necessarily the most likely to go distance in a normal game, but the circumstances suggest they’re better tonight.
Recommended Batters: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Daniel Murphy
Home Run Prop Bet:
Daniel Murphy (TBA) – Colorado Rockies – 1B
Daniel Murphy likely has the widest odds of these three recommendations (as of publication, the odds are not released), and he has the best advanced metrics. His fly ball rate is high, and his power against right-handed pitching is well documented.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, the Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles game is not listed on PrizePicks. It may become available later in the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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