Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
It is not often that the Texas Rangers find their way onto this recommendation list, but do not end up being the team that is recommended. However, tonight, the Los Angeles Angels are the better team to target. Drew Smyly is taking the mound for the Rangers, and he owns a horrible 2.0 HR/9. He is a strikeout pitcher against a team that only strikes out 0.179 times per at-bat (the lowest on the slate). Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs, and the Angels are -160 favorites, giving the Angels an implied run total of 5.1. The weather is decent, as it is expected to be around 60-65 degrees, and the wind is blowing out toward center field at around 6 MPH. Smyly also possesses a fly ball rate of almost 50% and a hard hit rate of almost 40% in his last two games. The obvious recommendation is Mike Trout. He is hitting 0.078 HR/AB, and despite his poor power splits against left-handed pitching, his advanced metrics are too fantastic to pass on. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 257 feet, an average exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of just over 40%. Next, look toward Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has a ton of power, and he is hitting 0.064 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 211 feet, an average exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Finally, roster Albert Pujols. Kole Calhoun is worthy of consideration, but the ball has been coming off Pujols’s bat faster over the last 15 days. He has an average exit velocity of 95 MPH compared to Calhoun’s 89 MPH. Pujols also has an average batted ball distance of 227 feet, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate of 55%. As an added bonus, he has positive power splits against left-handed pitching, entering tonight’s game with a 0.104 ISO differential. The Angels are going to score tonight, and the power hitters should be a large part of the reason why.
Recommended Batters: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols
Home Run Prop Bet:
Albert Pujols (+455) – Los Angeles Angels – 1B
Albert Pujols has the better power splits against left-handed pitching, and his odds are far too wide tonight. Mike Trout is obviously always has a decent chance at hitting a home run, but Pujols has great advanced metics, and the situation bodes well for him. Shohei Ohtani is just not good enough against left-handed pitching to warrant betting on him as a solo play.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently the Los Angeles Angels are not listed on PrizePicks. If Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, or Albert Pujols become available later in the day, all three can be safely played as over. Kole Calhoun can even be played as over, as well.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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