Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Well, go ahead and say it. This recommendation is about as boring as Money in the Bank was on Sunday. Come on, WWE! Brock Lesnar again? Grow up. Anyway, that isn’t the point. The point is that the Houston Astros are the best team to target for home runs tonight, and even though that is a boring thing to say, it’s still true. Ivan Nova is taking the mound for the Chicago White Sox, and he leads the slate in HR/9 at 1.7. The Astros are -330 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. Over the last 15 days, Nova has surrendered an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. So, are the three recommendations George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley? No. That would be far too boring! The three recommendations are George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jake Marisnick. Do I have your attention? Well, Springer is hitting first for the Astros, and he currently sports a 0.054 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he has 5 home runs. His advanced metrics are solid, but not worth mentioning because the convincing has already been accomplished. Keep in mind, Springer did not play on Tuesday, so double check his injury status prior to the start of the game. Next, Alex Bregman is an absolute must play when targeting Astros’ home runs. He leads the team with 0.07 HR/AB, and over his last 10 games, he has 4. Again, his advanced metrics are solid, but it would be overkill to regurgitate them. Bregman is never going to not be rostered when predicting home runs in Houston. Finally, Jake Marisnick enters tonight’s game with a 0.113 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and despite hitting in the nine-hole, he has 0.061 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 223 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 35%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The Astros are going to score runs tonight, they tend to hit home runs when they score, and Nova is susceptible to the home run. Just do it.
*UPDATE* George Springer is OUT. Replace him with Michael Brantley.
Recommended Batters: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jake Marisnick
Home Run Prop Bet:
George Springer (OUT) – Houston Astros – OF
George Springer gets the slight edge over Alex Bregman tonight based on his recent performance. He has been locked in at the plate, and he could get one extra at-bat that Bregman does not, considering he is hitting leadoff, and Bregman is in the two-hole. Either way, both Springer and Bregman make for great home run prop bets.
*UPDATE* George Springer is OUT. Replace him with Alex Bregman.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently the Houston Astros do not have available options on PrizePicks. However, with that being one of the featured games this evening, it could change prior to lock. Select the over for George Springer, Alex Bregman, or Jake Marisnick, if it becomes available.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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