Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
The New York Yankees are traveling to Baltimore to square off against the Orioles and Andrew Cashner tonight. The O/U is set at 9.5 runs and the Yankees are -195 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. Cashner is allowing 1.3 HR/9, and the weather is at least decent at over 75 degrees. In his last two games, Cashner is allowing a fly ball rate over 40%. He is susceptible to the home run, and the Yankees are a good team to target on Monkey Knife Fight. First, roster Luke Voit. He is hitting 0.085 HR/AB, and despite his poor power splits against right-handed pitching, he should remain in the three-hole. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 220 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. His advanced metrics suggest that he has serious home run potential. With only 1 home run in his last 10 games, Voit is due. Next, a Yankees’ home run lineup would not be complete without Gary Sanchez. The Yankees’ star catcher is hitting 0.065 HR/AB. He is expected to hit in the power spot in the batting order, and his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. Sanchez is a lock tonight. Finally, round out the lineup with Kendrys Morales due to his solid power splits against right-handed pitching. He is hitting 0.044 HR/AB, but he enters tonight’s game with a 0.084 ISO differential against righties. He is more of a shot-in-the-dark kind of player, and he makes for a great option on DraftKings due to his low price tag (bonus content!).
Recommended Batters: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Kendrys Morales
Home Run Prop Bet:
Kendrys Morales (+490) – New York Yankees – 1B
Kendrys Morales makes for a solid option on MyBookie tonight due to his wide odds. Both Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez are under +300 to go yard, and Morales has the best power splits. He is great against right-handed pitching, and Andrew Cashner is a sub-par pitcher. This makes logistical sense.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Gary Sanchez (7.5, OVER)
If Gary Sanchez hits a home run, he will go over his fantasy points needed on PrizePicks. Even if he doesn’t, he has plenty of RBI opportunity in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight. Andrew Cashner is a great pitcher to pick on.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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