Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Two of the league’s best offenses take the field against each other tonight. The Boston Red Sox and Hector Velazquez are slight underdogs against the Houston Astros and Corbin Martin. Vegas has the O/U set at 10.5 runs, which gives the Astros an implied run total of 5.4, and the Red Sox an implied run total of 5.2. Velazquez has been effective against the home run ball, allowing only 0.76 HR/9, which makes the Red Sox a better target for Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest. Martin is allowing 1.7 HR/9. Even so, the Astros are in play due to their powerful batting lineup. In fact, Alex Bregman is far too hot right now to avoid. He is hitting 0.071 HR/AB, and his ISO differential is slightly positive against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 232 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. He is hitting second in the Astros’ batting order, so he should see an added at-bat. Next, roster a mini-Red Sox stack in Mookie Betts and Mitch Moreland. Betts is expected to hit second, while Moreland will hit fourth. Both batters have positive ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Betts enters tonight’s game with a 0.093 ISO differential, while Moreland has a 0.124 ISO differential. Betts is hitting 0.052 HR/AB, while Moreland is hitting 0.048 HR/AB. Both batters have serious home run potential. In the last 15 days, Betts has an average batted ball distance of 254 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. Moreland has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit of 33%. There will be scoring tonight, and these three batters possess plenty of power for home runs.
Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
Home Run Prop Bet:
Alex Bregman (+415) – Houston Astros – 3B
Alex Bregman’s odds to hit a home run tonight are far too wide, despite Hector Velazquez’s ability to thwart home run upside. Bregman is a different caliber batter. Whenever his home run odds are over +400 and the Vegas O/U is set over 10, bet Bregman.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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