Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
The Boston Red Sox are travelling to Baltimore tonight to square off against the Orioles and John Means. Means, despite his rather impressive statistics – 2.81 ERA, 3-3 record, 25 strikeouts – has yet to throw a quality start this season. More importantly, he is surrendering 1.6 HR/9, which is the highest of all the pitchers taking the mound tonight. He tends to average around three innings pitched, so the Red Sox will have to make quick work of the plus matchup, but even once he is out of the game, the Orioles rank second last in the league in bullpen ERA. This game is set at 9.5 runs and the Red Sox are -160 favorites, suggesting an implied run total of 5.4 runs, which is, again, the highest on the slate. Stacking the Red Sox seems obvious enough, but who should fantasy owners be targeting? Well, start with J.D. Martinez, who gets a plus matchup against a left-handed pitcher. He enters tonight’s contest with 0.029 ISO and 0.016 wOBA differentials, and he is hitting 0.072 HR/AB. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 221 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 93 MPH, his fly ball rate is a solid 37%, and his hard hit rate is an outstanding 45%. Martinez does not have a home run in any of his last 10 games, but advanced statistics suggest the power shots are coming, and soon. Oh, and he is hitting third in the batting order, so an added at-bat is likely. Also, consider Xander Bogaerts, as he has been rather powerful at the plate over the course of the 2019 season, hitting six home runs, two of which came in his last two games. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, his average exit velocity is 92 MPH, his fly ball rate is 54%, and his hard hit rate is 43%. His average distance is up 18 feet compared to his 12-month average, as is his exit velocity (1 MPH) and hard hit rate (5%). Bogaerts is hitting in the Red Sox’s power spot for a reason. Finally, take a chance on Michael Chavis, who is likely going to go underlooked tonight. He is a right-handed batter with massive power splits against left-handed pitching. His ISO differential entering this game is 0.311. He also sports a solid 0.029 wOBA differential. With 0.095 HR/AB, he is obviously an extremely powerful batter when given opportunities. He has six home runs on the season, three of which came in his last three games. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 228 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. His value will shift, if the Orioles bring in a right-handed reliever early, but as long as he does not get pinch-hit for, he has ample opportunity to secure that long ball.
Recommended Batters: J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis
Home Run Prop Bet:
Michael Chavis (+320) – Boston Red Sox – 3B
Michael Chavis is underappreciated right now, which could lead to his odds being a little wider than they should be. He has a ton of power against left-handed pitching, which has been outlined above, and over his last 10 games, he has five home runs. He is hitting a home run over 33% of the time that he records a hit, and the Boston Red Sox are expected to score over five runs tonight. There is a lot of value to be had here.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Michael Chavis – Over – 6.0 Fantasy Points
Michael Chavis is obviously one of the better options tonight regarding home run value. If he hits a home run, he will obviously go over six fantasy points. Even if he doesn’t, he is hitting in the middle of a Boston Red Sox lineup that is expected to score over five runs tonight. With a left-handed pitcher on the mound, this over is obvious. Lock it in.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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