Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
There is absolutely no reason to get fancy tonight when attempting to predict home runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are set at 11 runs via Vegas, and a few of those runs are bound to be deep balls. Robbie Ray is one of the better arms in the league, but his 43% fly ball rate over the last 15 days will be troubling, if he is not getting swinging strikes. He is also a left-handed pitcher facing a lineup with a lot of right-handed power. Tyler Anderson is a decent pitching option that finds himself in an unfortunate circumstance. The Diamondbacks are a very powerful team, and Anderson will likely continue to struggle at home, where is has allowed 11 earned runs in 7 innings pitched to start the season. In the ‘Battle of the Bales’ article, I recommended Trevor Story, despite his insanely high DraftKings price, and a large part of that recommendation hinges on his power and great splits against left-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s contest with 0.076 ISO and 0.086 wOBA differentials against LHP, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of over 250 feet! His fly ball rate is over 50%, and his hard hit rate is approaching 50%. His average distance over the last 15 days is up 27 feet from his 12-month average, and he is hitting second in the Rockies’ batting order, so he should see at least four of five at-bats. Immediately following Story in the batting order will be Nolan Arenado. He is approaching double-digit home runs this season, and he has 6 in his last 10 games. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 224 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls over 94 MPH, and a fly ball rate over 40%. His hard hit rate is also over 40%, but that is to be expected with a batter the caliber of Arenado. He has 0.196 ISO and 0.149 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching, so it would be a huge mistake to leave him out of any home run derby lineup tonight against Ray. With 0.06 HR/AB, he is one of the safer options. Finally, roster Ketel Marte from the Diamondbacks. Marte also hits left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching with 0.157 ISO and 0.116 wOBA differentials. He hits the deep ball far less often than players like Story and Arenado, but his advanced statistics look good, and he is in Coors Field tonight. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 93 MPH, and his hard hit rate is approaching 50%. His fly ball rate is just under 40%. Again, he hits at the top of the order, like all of these recommendations, so he should see at least four of five at-bats. It is all about maximizing chances.
Recommended Batters: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte
Home Run Prop Bet:
Trevor Story (+300) – Colorado Rockies – SS
Trevor Story is the recommendation of the day. I recommended him on ‘Battle of the Bales’. I recommended him above. And, I am recommending him over at MyBookie. He has great advanced statistics that suggest his power should be on full display tonight. Robbie Ray is allowing 1.2 HR/9, and Story’s average batted ball distance over the last 15 days is second-to-none. The odds might be a little bit close via Vegas due to the high expected run total, but a close line that hits is better than a wide line that doesn’t.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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