Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
There were only two other games that peeked home run interest tonight, but neither one offers as much upside as the Los Angeles Dodgers against Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants. For the curious-minded, those games were the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds, but both Zack Wheeler and Tanner Roark have absurdly low fly ball rates this season, and the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies, but both Zach Davies and Kyle Freeland have very low HR/9 rates, which is especially impressive considering they both pitch in very hitter-friendly stadiums for the most part. As indicated on the Battle of the Bales article, Samardzija has a high fly ball rate to start the season, but the home runs are just not all there. That is probably in part due to him consistently pitching in San Francisco, but even so, negatively regression is likely coming. His 94 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls is horrible, and his hard hit rate of 51% will be a problem against such a high-powered Dodgers’ offense. Joc Pederson is the natural recommendation when predicting home run success. He has a massive 0.219 ISO differential entering tonight’s game, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 224 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, and a 44% hard hit rate. With double-digit home runs already this season, it shouldn’t take much to convince anyone to roster him in a home run derby contest. Corey Seager is another postivie power splits hitter against right-handed pitching, entering tonight’s game with a 0.200 ISO differential. His advanced statistics over the last 15 days are incredible. With an average batted ball distance of 264 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate at 42%, it is nearly impossible to not consider him a home run threat tonight. Finally, Cody Bellinger must be included here. Justin Turner is also a noteworthy option, but to leave Bellinger off of a home run recommendation list seems dishonest and weird. He has 14 home runs already this season, and his ISO differential is 0.219 tonight. With almost 0.08 HR/AB, one does not even need advanced statistics to plug-and-play here.
Recommended Batters: Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
Home Run Prop Bet:
Justin Turner (TBA) – Los Angeles Dodgers – 3B
As previously mentioned, Justin Turner makes for a solid pivot on the Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby recommendation list, but he makes for an even better option over at MyBookie. Turner is not one of the players that sticks out when someone mentions home run potential for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ squad. However, over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, and an insane 60% hard hit rate. His hard hit rate is up 14% from his 12-month average, and his recent batted ball luck indicator suggests his batting average and extra-base hits should increase. Unfortunately, he does not have great splits against right-handed pitching, but, again as previously mentioned, Samardzija has a high fly ball rate, and home runs are bound to come at some point. Turner should see around +450 odds tonight, and that is a wager bettors should be willing to take.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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