We’re coming off of a PrizePicks NBA loss last night. Al Horford only had 4 potential assists, but he recorded the 3 assists needed to push. It was Giannis Antetokounmpo that ruined the play, recording only 5 assists on 15 potential assists. Given the fact that Horford hit his push number, I’d bet Antetokounmpo’s over knowing he ended with 15 potential assists 100% of the time. It was one instance where it didn’t work out. I’m shifting over the Monkey Knife Fight for an MLB play. I’ll outline a pitching prop from the Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants game using our SPF Predictor on Bet Karma.
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2/2 More or Less – Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Alex Wood over 4.5 strikeouts
Wood’s seen mixed results throughout the season, recording a 2-2 record with a 4.38 ERA through 5 starts. He’s been getting unlucky, though, as he boasts a 2.85 xFIP thus far. It’s only a matter of time before his ERA starts to dip to closer match his xFIP.
He’s performed well in terms of strikeouts as well. Through 5 starts, Wood’s posted 5+ strikeouts 4 times. He only struggled against the Washington Nationals, recording 3 strikeouts over 5 innings.
Overall, Wood’s strikeout numbers are a bit below what he posted last season. His swinging-strike and CSW rates are roughly 2% below what he posted in 2021, suggesting his strikeout rate could dip slightly as the season progresses, but it’s unlikely to be anything major.
This isn’t truly a matchup play, as the Colorado Rockies have performed well against left-handed pitching, specifically in terms of strikeouts. With that being said, they’ll be playing in San Francisco, and the Rockies are always a drastically different offense on the road.
Wood’s number is simply set too low, and he boasts the second-largest difference on our predictor.
Antonio Senzatela under 3.5 strikeouts
It’s difficult to project some starters at such a low strikeout total, which is why I feel this isn’t set lower. With that being said, it’s still below the 3.5 threshold for our SPF Predictor.
Senzatela’s ERA doesn’t look all that bad at the moment, but he’s due for roughly 1 earned run worth of regression. He also isn’t striking anyone out at the moment. He’s gone under 3.5 in each of his 5 starts, and he’s only hit 3 strikeouts in a game once.
To make matters worse, he gets a terrible matchup against the San Francisco Giants. They were striking out at a relatively high rate early in the season, but they aren’t striking out at an overly high rate against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, they’re striking out at the lowest rate in the MLB over the last 14 days.
Senzatela already isn’t a strikeout pitcher, and the Giants are seeing the ball well at the moment. It’s easy to love his under, even with it being set so low.
Bet Alex Wood “more than” 4.5 strikeouts and Antonio Senzatela “less than” 3.5 strikeouts to win 2.5x your buy-in
