We’re coming off of a loss on the Zach Logue and Marco Gonzales SPF Predictor play last night. Both pitchers struggled but Logue found strikeouts while Gonzales didn’t. We’re running it back with Bet Karma’s SPF Predictor tonight. The difference is bigger on each play tonight, meaning the SPF Predictor has more confidence than we saw on Logue last night. Below, you’ll find the SPF Predictor’s favorite bet for the Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros game tonight.
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Prop Pick – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts
Valdez isn’t an overly dominant strikeout option, recording a 7.5 K/9 through 8 starts. He’s also posted 19.7% strikeout, 9.9% swinging-strike, and 26.4% CSW rates through 47 innings this season.
Valdez looks better in terms of strikeouts in recent games, though. He’s posted 7, 6, and 7 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Surprisingly, his swinging-strike rate hasn’t jumped over that span, which isn’t a great sign.
Overall, this is a great matchup for the southpaw. The Cleveland Guardians don’t strikeout at a high rate, but they are arguably the worst offense in the MLB against left-handed pitching. They rank last in OPS against lefties, allowing Valdez to throw deep into this game.
The Astros lefty has thrown 6+ innings in 5 consecutive starts, including 7+ innings in each of his last 2. If he can throw that deep into this game, he won’t need a dominant strikeout rate, which is how I expect this game to go.
Zach Plesac over 2.5 strikeouts
Plesac isn’t a strikeout pitcher by any means. He owns a 5.4 K/9 to go along with 13.8% strikeout, 8.2% swinging-strike, and 25.2% CSW rates through 7 starts. These are the lowest rates of his career, although each looks sustainable at the moment.
With that being said, 2.5 strikeouts is simply set too low. Plesac’s recorded 3+ strikeouts in 6 of his 7 starts this season, failing to do so in only 3.2 innings against the Los Angeles Angels.
Plesac gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros, who are striking out at the eighth-lowest rate (21.2%) in the MLB against right-handed pitching. Plesac’s found 3+ strikeouts in terrible matchups before, though, including the Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, and Kansas City Royals.
I’m expecting Plesac to struggle in this game against Houston, but I’m also expecting him to post 3+ strikeouts, as he has the ability to throw relatively deep into the game.
Bet Framber Valdez “more than” 4.5 strikeouts and Zach Plesac “more than” 2.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
