MLB BATTER UP April 9th, 2019
In this article I’ll be keeping a similar approach to how I built my article last season with my stacks, players I’m targeting from those stacks (and why), low-owned home run calls per position, and highest upside plays per position. As always, keep in touch with me through Discord and Twitter (@DF_Advantage) to suggest things you’d like me to add or take away from this article.
Top Stacks
One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB. Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset. Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team. This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments. It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up). Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.
Not only will I be identifying two teams I believe you should target in GPPs, but I will also discuss in the analysis which specific players I want exposure from these two teams AND why.
Bobby’s Favorite Stack (and players): Brewers – I’m sticking with the Brewers as my number one stack of the day as I believe they are severely undervalued currently by Vegas and I think we’re going to see a big discrepancy in what is currently being bet on and what either the finishing O/U ends up being/what the game actually produces. The Brewers are in a fantastic spot against Matt Harvey who is just not a good pitcher. He’s gotten off to a putrid start to 2019 and while he’ll likely be able to survive the season as a mid 4 ERA starter, this matchup with a fantastic Brewers team filled with lefties who on average have hit Harvey for a wOBA .023 higher. While this slate is going to be tough to fit the bats you want in where I believe you HAVE to lock in Jacob DeGrom in all formats, you may be able to open up some salary relief using Kyle Gibson as your SP2 which will be a common approach I take to my lineup build in all my lineups. If you are able to afford Christian Yelich, go for it, he projects the highest wOBA and ISO in this lineup and should have an absolute day. The Angels also rank 23rd in the MLB in WAR by the bullpen (their bullpen has a negative projected WAR for 2019). However, outside of Yelich every other player is in the low 4k range and is a team you will be able to reach if you plug in DeGrom. Mike Moustakas is again an elite play and “under-priced” (hopefully he gets pushed up in the order), Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and either Cain/Braun/Aguilar are the best plays in order. Notice the lefties are leading the charge for the Brewers tonight as they did last night.
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- Best “One-Off” – Travis Shaw
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Christian Yelich
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Bobby’s #1 Leverage Stack of the Slate: Yankees – I almost included the Yankees in my leverage stack spot last night and it would’ve paid off as I was close to all in on Aaron Judge who had a huge game at only 4.5k on Draftkings. Tonight they face Gerrit Cole in a game I believe they are extremely undervalued again according to Vegas and likely no one will be playing them on a 10-game main slate where Vegas has them implied for just 3.3 runs. Even with all the injuries in this lineup, the Yankees have some extremely dangerous bats in Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and even Clint Frazier who has been on fire at the bottom of the order. I’m betting on the offense here to outperform a very good pitcher and an elite bullpen. Judge’s price has come up but the rest of the Yankees are extremely underpriced and will give you exposure to an extremely high potent offense on a slate where nobody is going to be able to pair elite offenses with elite pitchers unless you’re getting off the board as I will be with the Yankees. Judge, Sanchez, Voit, Torres all project for wOBA’s near “average” in this matchup which when using game theory to combine with their upside/correlation provide for an elite leverage stack.
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- Best “One-Off” – Luke Voit
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Aaron Judge
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Make sure to stay up to date with my core plays which can be utilized for cash games and single entry GPPs by DMing me on twitter and signing up for our core plays at www.dfskarma.com/shop (use promo code DOUBLEPLAY to get a discount). I will always be in discord, as usual, answering questions and giving additional insight to our subscribers and community on the day’s slate.
Bobby’s LOW-OWNED BOMB’S PER POSITION (Proj. ISO)
C: G. Sanchez (.246 )
1B: M. Muncy (.325 )
2B: M. Moustakas (.242 )
SS: R. Mondesi (.275)
3B: T. Shaw (.274 )
OF1: J. Soler (.355 )
OF2: E. Thames (.249 )
OF3: H. Renfroe (.225)
Highest Ceiling Player Per Position (Price/Ownership Not Considered)
C: Gary Sanchez
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Ozzie Albies
SS: Trevor Story
3B: Nolan Arenado
OF1: Mike Trout
OF2: Ronald Acuna
OF3: Khris Davis
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