MLB BATTER UP April 8th, 2019
In this article I’ll be keeping a similar approach to how I built my article last season with my stacks, players I’m targeting from those stacks (and why), low-owned home run calls per position, and highest upside plays per position. As always, keep in touch with me through Discord and Twitter (@DF_Advantage) to suggest things you’d like me to add or take away from this article.
Top Stacks
One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB. Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset. Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team. This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments. It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up). Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.
Not only will I be identifying two teams I believe you should target in GPPs, but I will also discuss in the analysis which specific players I want exposure from these two teams AND why.
Bobby’s Favorite Stack (and players): Brewers – The Brewers are a stack tonight that actually might fall under the radar against Trevor Cahill who projects for close to double-digit ownership on Draftkings tonight as an SP2 salary saver. I think playing him is a pretty big mistake considering what this Brewers offense is capable of. Players continue to break out and produce for this team and while production can come from any part of the lineup, the run production is actually more focused on the 1-5 hitters which are ideal for a stack where the 1-5 hitters usually produce the most value given they see the most amount of at-bats. Cahill has been riding an unsustainable BB% to start the year which is keeping his ERA much lower than it likely should be. Throughout his career, Cahill has hovered around the 9-11% range. Although the Brewers are getting a park downgrade here they are guaranteed the full 9-innings of AB’s which is one of the most underrated parts of DFS when searching for value stacks. An additional AB increasing the EV of a player immensely, especially when you are exposed to the top of the lineup. I’ll be targeting Christian Yelich (slightly overpriced), Jesus Aguilar (under-priced), Mike Moustakas (severely under-priced), Travis Shaw, and Lorenzo Cain here for the Brewers. Moustakas is someone I would consider in cash today given his under-pricing on Draftkings on a season where pricing has been unusually tight for hitters.
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- Best “One-Off” – Mike Moustakas
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Christian Yelich
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Bobby’s #1 Leverage Stack of the Slate: Nationals – I had a good feeling that Velasquez would scare some people off of the Nationals due to the fact that he is known as a fairly good strikeout pitcher. While that may be true, he projects as the number four pitcher on the slate in BB%. In addition, over the course of his career, he has been extremely prone to the home-run ball, and while he was able to keep that number below 1.0 HR/9 last season, it is more than likely we see that number regress a bit to his career mean. Obviously, from an upside perspective, we’re going to be looking for some home-runs tonight off Velasquez. The main bat I want to look to get exposure to that profile well against Velasquez from an upside/ISO/wOBA perspective is Anthony Rendon who projects for an extremely high ISO (+ .240) and solid wOBA (north of .360). He’s extremely discounted on Draftkings tonight and someone I’ll be very over-exposed to on the field to gain some great leverage. Next, I’d turn my attention to Juan Soto who is right up with Rendon from an ISO perspective (slightly less), but projects for a higher wOBA in this matchup with Velasquez and the Phillies bullpen. He’s priced up for a bit of a premium at 4.8k but if you’re looking to capitalize on this leverage spot you’ll want him in your lineup. Wrap up this stack with Adam Eaton, Victor Robles, and potentially Ryan Zimmerman/Brian Dozier.
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- Best “One-Off” – Anthony Rendon
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Juan Soto
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Make sure to stay up to date with my core plays which can be utilized for cash games and single entry GPPs by DMing me on twitter and signing up for our core plays at www.dfskarma.com/shop (use promo code DOUBLEPLAY to get a discount). I will always be in discord, as usual, answering questions and giving additional insight to our subscribers and community on the day’s slate.
Bobby’s LOW-OWNED BOMB’S PER POSITION (Proj. ISO)
C: G. Sanchez (.250 )
1B: M. Muncy (.329 )
2B: E. Hernandez (.259 )
SS: D. Swanson (.206)
3B: T. Shaw (.276 )
OF1: J. Pederson (.307 )
OF2: W. Myers (.263 )
OF3: V. Robles (.316)
Highest Ceiling Player Per Position (Price/Ownership Not Considered)
C: JT Realmuto
1B: Rhys Hoskins
2B: Ozzie Albies
SS: Trevor Story
3B: Josh Donaldson
OF1: Mike Trout
OF2: Charlie Blackmon
OF3: Khris Davis
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