MLB BATTER UP April 26th, 2019
Only a 5-game slate today so I’m going to keep my article short and prioritize my “Leverage” stack which will always be the key to binking a GPP on these short slates.
In this article I’ll be keeping a similar approach to how I built my article last season with my stacks, players I’m targeting from those stacks (and why), low-owned home run calls per position, and highest upside plays per position. As always, keep in touch with me through Discord and Twitter (@DF_Advantage) to suggest things you’d like me to add or take away from this article.
Top Stacks
One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB. Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset. Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team. This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments. It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up). Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.
Not only will I be identifying two teams I believe you should target in GPPs, but I will also discuss in the analysis which specific players I want exposure from these two teams AND why.
Bobby’s #1 Leverage Stack of the Slate: Cubs – The Cubs project as one of the higher scoring teams on the slate but they may end up going way under-owned tonight against Robbie Ray who is a well known pitcher in this league. With Ray’s pretty bad BB% around 14%, he could struggle with a lineup that has a ton of patient hitters at the plate with players like Jason Heyward, Wilson Contreras, and Kris Bryant all with BB%’s over 13%. Leaving runners on base is going to be an issue against a stacked lineup with Baez, Heyward, Contreras, and Rizzo all with xwOBA’s .379+. The fact that we can get exposure to such a talented roster, on the road where they will get a full 9 inning’s of ABs, against a pitcher blown to blowups due to his high BB%, this is a fantastic leverage/high-upside situation we get by targeting the Cubs tonight.
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- Best “One-Off” – Kris Bryant
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Anthony Rizzo
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My Favorite Stack on the Slate: Mariners: While some players on this Seattle roster have gotten off to a slower start, Ryon Healy and Mitch Haniger, these are players that will come around with a ton of power for the Mariners. This is overall a fantastic spot for the Mariners with the only knock being they are at home in a pitcher’s ballpark. However, I’m overlooking this factor by the fact they are lineup up for a huge game against a bad starter plus a below-average bullpen. The top players to target from this Mariners team tonight is Daniel Vogelbach (.407 xwOBA/.527 SLG/19.5 BB%), Domingo Santana (.392 xwOBA/ .311 xBA/ .540 SLG), Jay Bruce (48.8% HH rate/ 91.3 EV/ .556 SLG). These are the three guys I immediately want in my lineups but will be willing to piece either Haniger or Healy around them in a stack.
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- Best “One-Off” – Edwin Encarnacion
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Dan Vogelbach
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Make sure to stay up to date with my core plays which can be utilized for cash games and single entry GPPs by DMing me on twitter and signing up for our core plays at www.dfskarma.com/shop (use promo code DOUBLEPLAY to get a discount). I will always be in discord, as usual, answering questions and giving additional insight to our subscribers and community on the day’s slate.
Bobby’s BOMB’S PER POSITION (Proj. ISO)
C: G. Sanchez (.279 )
1B: L. Voit (.371
2B: B. Lowe (.236 )
SS: G. Torres (.295)
3B: N. Arenado (.379 )
OF1: J. Pederson (.346 )
OF2: J. Gallo (.333 )
OF3: J. Soler (.313)
Highest Ceiling Player Per Position (Price/Ownership Not Considered)
C: JT Realmuto
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ozzie Albies
SS: Tim Anderson
3B: Jose Ramirez
OF1: Ronald Acuna
OF2: Mookie Betts
OF3: Mike Trout
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