MLB BATTER UP April 23rd, 2019
I apologize to everyone who has been DMing me on twitter and Discord asking where my content has been the last week. I’ve been going through hell with my MacBook and just recently found out it’s a $700 repair so I may be looking to purchase a completely new one. In the mean time I’ll be driving to a public library each day to complete my content for Karma. I’ll also be back posting my core plays for subscribers who have been asking about that. Let’s get back to baseball.
In this article I’ll be keeping a similar approach to how I built my article last season with my stacks, players I’m targeting from those stacks (and why), low-owned home run calls per position, and highest upside plays per position. As always, keep in touch with me through Discord and Twitter (@DF_Advantage) to suggest things you’d like me to add or take away from this article.
Top Stacks
One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB. Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset. Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team. This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments. It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up). Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.
Not only will I be identifying two teams I believe you should target in GPPs, but I will also discuss in the analysis which specific players I want exposure from these two teams AND why.
Bobby’s #1 Leverage Stack of the Slate: Astros- There are going to be a ton of ways to go on this slate where there are a whopping 13 games to cover. Ownership is going to be pretty evenly spread out with most of the concentration on the Nationals vs. Rockies game which is taking place at Coors Field. The Astros, in my opinion, are being underrated by Vegas and will fly even more under the radar due to the high K total projected by Vegas in addition to the stigma that Pineda is a quality pitcher. While his K% does increase his advanced numbers, his high BB% and HR rate is going to be detrimental to his success against this Astros team which does not strike out a lot. With such a stacked 1-5 top of the order for the Astros, who’s offensive production is pretty fairly spread through these five guys, I’m going to be looking to target them all here. George Springer seems like close to a lock here, leading off with an xwOBA of .410. Although you pay a premium for him at 5.1k tonight on Draftkings, I’m going to be willing to pay up for these bats and down at pitcher in my GPPs. Next look to Jose Altuve in this lineup with a .395 xwOBA and HH% of over 47%. Follow these two elite bats up with Alex Bregman (.385 xwOBA), Josh Reddick (.367 xwOBA – elite value), and either Carlos Correa or Michael Brantley (I usually will lean Correa to get an elite bat in that position where it is a bit more easy to find outfield value).
-
-
- Best “One-Off” – Josh Reddick – elite value
- Best Bet for a Homerun – George Springer
-
Bobby’s Favorite Stack of the Slate: San Fran Giants – This is a stack that is going to fall severely underowned tonight and the implied totals I’m seeing on this team are looking pretty far off from what I imagine what we see from an MLB offense facing Trent Thorton. Outside of Thorton’s K%, all of his pitching periphrial’s are pretty bad. Thorton is a prospect people are going to be afraid to target but he is not elite and I love to target pitcher’s in there first few MLB starts as people underestimate the skill gap between AAA ball and the MLB when they’re just analyzing the numbers. I’m going to be extremely specific who I target from this Giants team today and there really isn’t a lot to love. However, this team is extremely cheap on Draftkings and allows you to do a lot with the rest of your lineup. Brandon Belt is the best play here with a 46.2 HH% and .334 xwOBA. Next I’d look to Buster Posey at just 3.4k on Draftkings who’s hitting periphrials fall next in line. Wrap up this stack with Evan Longoria or Pablo Sandoval, all extremely cheap tonight on Draftkings.
Make sure to stay up to date with my core plays which can be utilized for cash games and single entry GPPs by DMing me on twitter and signing up for our core plays at www.dfskarma.com/shop (use promo code DOUBLEPLAY to get a discount). I will always be in discord, as usual, answering questions and giving additional insight to our subscribers and community on the day’s slate.
Bobby’s BOMB’S PER POSITION (Proj. ISO)
C: Y. Grandal (.230 )
1B: C. Walker (.361)
2B: B. Lowe (.245 )
SS: F. Tatis (.294)
3B: M. Franco (.252 )
OF1: K. Davis (.309 )
OF2: D. Peralta (.262 )
OF3: B. Belt (.188)
Highest Ceiling Player Per Position (Price/Ownership Not Considered)
C: Mitch Garver
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Howie Kendrick
SS: Trevor Story
3B: Anthony Rendon
OF1: Mookie Betts
OF2: Christian Yelich
OF3: Mike Trout
Follow @DF_Advantage on Twitter
