What’s up friends! Many of you know that baseball is my favorite sport, so I am absolutely thrilled that the off-season is finally over and #OpeningDay is on the horizon tomorrow. With that being said, I’ve laid out a few of my favorite awards and prop bets for the upcoming season below — found on MyBookie, if you don’t already have a MyBookie account, promo code KARMA gets you a 65% deposit bonus up to $1,000. Let’s dive in!
Chris Paddack to win NL Rookie of the Year +2500
I’m going to come out swinging with this one, as the odds are simply too good for me to pass up. Many of our subs in discord have heard about Paddack from me since earlier in the off-season, and he is coming off one of the most impressive minor league seasons I can remember for a 23 year old starting pitcher. He posted a 2.31 FIP, 27% strikeout rate and just a 2.9% walk rate at double A last season, and it looked like he had no real shot of making the rotation to start the year heading into spring training. That all changed on Monday night when it was announced Paddack would earn his first major league start this Sunday in a superb matchup with the San Francisco Giants. Paddack had a dominant spring that saw him strike out 24 batters in 15.1 innings allowing just three runs. He is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and threw just 90 innings last season, so we can’t expect a massive innings total from him this season, but if he sticks in the rotation for the majority of the season he is certainly good enough to contend for the award and these odds are just too low. He has an insane fastball/change combo and if he can find a steady third pitch there won’t be any looking back for the 23 year old, man I can’t wait for Sunday!
Trevor Bauer to win AL Cy Young +2200
This is another instance where I think the odds are simply too good to not get some action, and I truly believe this is the year that Bauer can contend for the Cy Young award. For anyone that follows Bauer closely, you know that he is extremely analytical in his baseball and workout process. Two off-seasons ago he went to work hard on his fastball, resulting in a jump from 168 to 196 in his strikeouts. Last off-season he went to work hard on his slider, which resulted in a jump from 196 to 221 in his strikeouts and led him to his best overall season in the big leagues — for reference, in 2017 he threw a slider 4.4% of the time, that number jumped to nearly 15% in 2018. This off-season he went to work on a new changeup which was just as sharp as his slider in spring training. I’m not anticipating another 15+ strikeout jump, but I think 225+ is in the fold and it’s important to remember that he was in the Cy Young conversation last season before hitting the DL. He plays in probably the weakest division in baseball and I’m expecting a huge year out of him this season…which leads to my next bet.
Trevor Bauer OVER 219.5 strikeouts -115
As I mentioned above, Bauer put up 221 in a season where he was on the DL, so with his new changeup and his strong pitch mix in a weak and strikeout prone division, he should have no issues hitting 220 as long as he remains semi-healthy this season.
Jose Altuve OVER 97.5 runs -115
Altuve had a “down” year in this department in 2018 scoring only 84 runs thanks to him only playing in 137 games. He put up run totals of 108 and 112 in the prior two seasons, and I’m not worried about his health seeing that he had played 150+ games in five straight seasons prior to last year. This Houston Astros offense remains one of the best in the MLB, and if Altuve can return to 150 game form it feels like 98 runs is easily in the cards, especially with their division getting weaker than it was the last two years.
Whit Merrifield OVER 33.5 steals -115
This is one I talked to Bales about the other night, and I’m still scratching my head at the line of 33.5. Merrifield has steal totals of 34 and 45 over his first two MLB seasons, and in his first year when he totaled 34 that was in only 145 games. compared to 158 last season. The Royals are not going to be a good team this season, but the one thing they should and will do is steal, thanks in part to Whit, Adalberto Mondesi and the addition of Billy Hamilton. This whole team will have the green light and in a season where they won’t be competing there’s nothing outside of injuries to halt Whit from smashing 33.5.
Most regular season home runs – Joey Gallo +2500
My final 2019 season long MLB bet is going to go out with a bang, and it’s Joey Gallo to lead the majors in home runs. Since 2017, only three players have hit more home runs than Joey Gallo — Giancarlo Stanton, Khris Davis and JD Martinez. That immediately says value to me considering that Gallo comes into the season with just the tenth-best odds according to MyBookie. He’s played 145+ games in each of the last two seasons, so health is not a major concern whatsoever and I think his real odds are much higher than what we are getting here.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
