This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, safe gpp plays, low-owned gpp plays, and fades of today’s MLB main slate.
By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores. You can find them here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC, and more post cores daily.
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Aaron Nola | Vlad Jr | Kike Hernandez | Anthony Rendon | Carlos Correa | Y. Alvarez / K, Tucker |
| Shohei Ohtani | Jared Walsh | Jose Altuve | Austin Riley | Bo Bichette | Jesse Winker |
| Chris Bassitt | Hunter Dozier | Whit Merrifield | Manny Machado | Robel Garcia | H. Renfroe/ J. Soler |
| Max Fried | Matt Olson | Marcus Semien | Leury Garcia | Fernando Tatis Jr | Lourdes Gurriel Jr |
| Bailey Ober |
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Pitching
We have a pretty muddled pitching slate tonight with Aaron Nola sticking out as the clear “ace” against the Miami Marlins. I have Nola listed first in the cheat sheet, and I think he should be the first player into you cash game / optimal builds on Wednesday night. While there are loads of other solid pitching options you can make the case for, this slate is dominated by Shohei Ohtani in my opinion. I don’t expect Ohtani to be high-owned, and I’m making a point to be well overweight tonight. For starters, the Yankees are implied for over 5 runs, and that alone will scare people off the already “risky” Ohtani. The reason I put risky in quotations is because, well, he really hasn’t been. His control was all over the place in his first few starts, but over the last month (four starts) he has topped out at two walks. I noted that his velocity was up big-time in that start against the Mariners on 6/4 and he has looked close to dominant since.
He also is getting a right-handed heavy Yankees lineup tonight. New York is sending seven righties to the plate vs him tonight and on the season this starting lineup owns a combined 25% strikeout rate. Take a look at Ohtani’s 2021 numbers against right-handed hitters:
.236 wOBA allowed, .039 ISO allowed, 49% ground balls, 42.9% strikeouts! This is an ELITE pitcher in the split and he’s getting seven of them tonight. Lastly, for the narrative crowd…this is now the odds on favorite for AL MVP. What better way to make a statement then shutting down the Yankees in Yankee Stadium? He’s topped 100 pitches in his last start, and I think he is $2,000 too cheap for his upside in this match-up.
First Base
First base is loaded tonight but the top plays are Vlad Guerrero Jr and Jared Walsh. Vladdy is always a top option against a left-handed pitcher while Walsh draws Domingo German. German gives up power to both sides of the plated and his allowing over 40% hard hits and fly-balls to left-handed batters this season.
Second Base
Second base is another position that is loaded at the top-tier, but the guy that sticks out above everyone else is Kike Hernandez. Hernandez has a reputation as a lefty crusher, but the numbers over the last few seasons tell a different story. That being said, he does hit the ball hard with over 40% hard hits and fly balls in the split this season. Mike Minor is a fly ball pitcher, and he does allow power to opposite-hand batters. Jose Altuve is the top projection here, but I like Whit Merrifield for a low-owned play in all formats.
Third Base
Third base is pretty straightforward tonight with Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon soaking up 50% of the projected ownership. I like both of them in cash games, but you could look to pivot to someone like Leury Garcia for value. Garcia is a lock to be low-owned batting ninth for the White Sox tonight. I actually think CWS is one of the better GPP spots on the night. They have a pretty bad bullpen overall, and Ober is someone that struggles with left-handed batters. They won’t be one of the five highest-owned stacks tonight and that’s the type of leverage I’m looking for in large field tournaments.
Shortstop
Shortstop is one of the toughest positions tonight, Fernando Tatis Jr is projected for over 20% ownership while nobody else is coming in over 10%. I’ll likely focus on Robel Garcia, who is just $3,000 on DraftKings. Garcia is not a great hitter, but he provides cheap exposure to the best stack on the slate in the Astros. When people full-stack, they typically hone in on the top five hitters in the order while I like to look for one or two of the lower order guys in GPPs.
Outfield
Matt Harvey is on the hill, meaning that the team against him will be the number one stack on the slate…tonight that happens to be the Houston Astros. We know that Harvey is bad overall, but he especially struggles with left-handed batters. That bodes well for the Houston OF, as all of Alvarez, Tucker and Brantley bat from the left side. We have some bad weather in Cincinnati again, but if the game plays, Jesse Winker is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Joe Musgrove has seen a steep drop-off in his swing and miss ability in recent starts, to the point of it alarming me. This puts some of the Reds power hitters at the top of my pool, starting with Winker. We know that he barrels up everything, but he has continued to hit the ball hard and in the air with a 43% fly ball rate over the last 14 days. I think his price will keep him low-owned and if the game is good to go he is viable as a one off or in a mini-stack.
Bold Calls:
Double Dong: Kyle Tucker
1% homerun: Lourdes Gurriel Jr
4 hit game: Whit Merrifield
10 run team: Blue Jays
10 K Game: Shohei Ohtani
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
