Joey Votto gets a tough matchup against Yu Darvish, but he should benefit from his splits against right-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s game with a 0.055 ISO differential, and the Cincinnati Reds are expected to score over four runs tonight. Votto is expected to hit second in the lineup, giving him RBI and run-scoring opportunities, and his power has been increasing of recent. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .240 with 2 home runs, 2 stolen bases, and 6 RBIs, averaging over 9 fantasy points per game. PrizePicks has his total set at 6.0 tonight, and his advanced metrics suggest that is too low. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%, as well. Bet the over.
Ronald Acuna Jr. also gets a tough matchup tonight, but much like Votto, he should benefit from his positive power splits. Caleb Smith is having a great season for the Miami Marlins, but Acuna crushes left-handed pitching, and he enters tonight’s game with 0.091 ISO and 0.063 wOBA differentials. He has both home run and stolen base upside, and the Atlanta Braves are expected to score over four runs tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. Hitting over .300 in his last 10 games, Acuna is averaging just under 15 fantasy points per game. In that same time span, he has 5 home runs, 11 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. PrizePicks has his total set at 8.5 fantasy points, and even in a tough matchup, the over is the correct bet.
Play $25 on Joey Votto OVER 6.0 fantasy points and Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 8.5 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
