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Jose Berrios has thrown extremely well this season, but he’s due for quite a bit of regression. His ERA (2.80) is more than a full run under his xFIP (4.27) and SIERA (4.19). He has also scored 64 and 49 fantasy points in his last two games, but he saw elite matchups against the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox in those games. Prior to that, he scored fewer than 33 fantasy points in five consecutive games. Berrios gets a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight, and they feature one of the better offenses in the MLB. Berrios is a -147 favorite in this game, but it’s set at 10.5 runs. He’s a play for the under, as this is a much more difficult matchup than he has seen recently.
Jon Lester has thrown relatively well this season, posting a 4.09 xFIP and a 4.16 SIERA through 21 starts. He has seen a few hiccups recently, though scoring only 18 and 24 fantasy points in two of his last three starts. This is a matchup based play, though. Lester will face off against the Oakland A’s, who utilize a plethora of right-handed bats. Oakland ranks third last on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second in team wOBA. Lester is a -133 favorite, but the game is set at 9.5 runs. This total is set a bit low, but there’s little reason to believe Lester finds much fantasy success in this matchup.
Play $25 on Jose Berrios UNDER 33.0 fantasy points and Jon Lester UNDER 31.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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