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Jonathan Villar has been playing at an extremely high level recently, posting a .324 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .984 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and two stolen bases over that span, as well. With that being said, he does surprisingly own only 31% hard hit and 24% fly ball rates with an 89 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Still, Villar gets a great matchup against Trevor Richards, and he brings 0.056 wOBA and 0.072 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to lead off for the Baltimore Orioles, giving him ample opportunities for fantasy points.
Jack Flaherty has been enjoying a wildly successful season, posting a 3.93 xFIP and a 3.94 SIERA through 25 starts. He has also been better at home, where his xFIP drops to 3.36. His strikeout rate also increases to 30.6% in St. Louis. Flaherty gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled on the road this season. He has scored 43+ fantasy points in four of his last five games, while scoring 50+ fantasy points in three of those games. He’s currently a -242 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving the Rockies an implied run total of only 3.1 runs. This is a high total, but Flaherty has been playing well enough to find the over in this game.
Play $25 on Jonathan Villar OVER 7.5 fantasy points and Jack Flaherty OVER 43.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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