If you’re interested in getting all of our PrizePicks plays, sign up for our Discord Chat! Use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% off of ANY of our packages for the lifetime of that subscription.
Patrick Corbin has looked outstanding this season, but this is a matchup based play. Corbin has been at his best against left-handed batters, as he owns a 37% strikeout rate against them. That strikeout rate drops to 24.8% against right-handed batters, and he gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who utilize a right-handed heavy lineup. While their lineup is nothing to be overly concerned with, Corbin’s lack of potential strikeouts makes him a strong option for the under here. He owns less than 8 strikeouts in 9 games this season, and he scored less than 41 fantasy points in 8 of those games. Overall, he averaged only 24 fantasy points per game in those contests. While I expect him to find success against Miami, his total is set too high for this matchup.
Josh Bell has been playing well on the surface recently, but nearly all of his success is tied to his home runs. While he does own 40% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, those aren’t elite metrics for home runs. Bell has hit at least one home run in 3 of his last 10, but he has only scored 10+ fantasy points in 1 of the 7 games without a home run. He gets a matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled on the road, but has also held his opponent to only a 9.9% HR/FB rate on a 35% fly ball rate this season. Essentially, I’m playing against a Bell home run in this game, and I like the odds on that.
Play $25 on Patrick Corbin UNDER 41.0 fantasy points and Josh Bell UNDER 9.5 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
