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Jeff Samardzija has looked terrible this season, posting a 4-7 record with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through 16 starts. He has been worse than advertised, though, recording a 5.09 xFIP and a 4.81 SIERA in those games. Samardzija has held his opponents to a 12.8% HR/FB rate, although he has given up a 43.1% fly ball rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 12.4% soft hit rate. Samardzija only owns 19.9% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates. He gets a plus matchup against the San Diego Padres, who have been a boom or bust offense this season. With that being said, the San Francisco Giants are +152 underdogs in a game set at 8 runs tonight. Samardzija has scored 28+ fantasy points in only four starts this season, although he has failed to do so in four consecutive games.
Jason Hayward has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .424 with a .939 slugging percentage and a 1.412 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. He has also posted 41% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Heyward gets a plus matchup against Trevor Williams, who has struggled quite a bit this season. The former enters this game with 0.047 wOBA and 0.086 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has been a better fantasy option on the road this season, and Hayward has posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last four games. He makes an outstanding option for a surprisingly low total on this smaller slate.
Play $25 on Jeff Samardzija UNDER 27.5 fantasy points and Jason Heyward OVER 7.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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