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We’re getting these props early enough in the day that they are entirely too low, and it’s likely each of the props above increases from now until first pitch. Jacob deGrom isn’t seen as the Cy Young winner he was last season, but he still enters this game with a 3.18 xFIP and a 3.29 SIERA. He has only truly had three game games this season, while allowing two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 16 starts. His strikeout rate sits at 30.6% in 2019 to go along with a 14.7% swinging strike rate. That strikeout potential has been on full display against the Atlanta Braves, as deGrom owns 19 strikeouts over 13.1 innings against them this season. He finally looks back to form, and has scored 42+ fantasy points in six of his last seven games, including a 59 fantasy point performance against the Atlanta Braves. While I don’t necessarily expect that to happen again tonight, he has a 17 fantasy point buffer from that start.
I’m not a Lance Lynn guy, but I guess it’s time to buy into him, right? Through 16 starts, he has looked outstanding with a 3.88 xFIP and a 3.90 SIERA. He has also been throwing significantly better recently, posting an xFIP under 4.00 in each of his last seven starts, including four games with that number sitting below 3.00. Lynn has also performed well with 25.7% strikeout and 11% swinging strike rates this season. He’ll be moving from one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in Texas to one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in Tampa Bay tonight. While I generally don’t like picking on the Tampa Bay Rays offense, Lynn owns a 3.08 xFIP and a 32.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Rays have a few dominant lefties throughout their lineup, but they are expect to use six right-handed batters tonight. If Lynn can maneuver way Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and Ji-Man Choi tonight, he should find plenty of success. Keep in mind, he has scored 31+ fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, while pushing the total of 30 in that last contest. He’s entirely too cheap for how well he has been pitching recently.
Play $25 on Jacob deGrom OVER 41.5 fantasy points and Lance Lynn OVER 30.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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