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Jose Altuve is starting to heat up a bit, as he’s hitting .300 with a .450 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and one RBI. He has only scored more than 9 fantasy points in 2 of those 10 games, though. Altuve has struggled a bit with 44% hard hit and 64% ground ball rates to go along with an 89 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He gets a plus matchup against Joe Musgrove, but this game will be played in a pitcher friendly stadium. Altuve also owns -0.116 wOBA and -0.174 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. While he has been a consistent player recently, he hasn’t flashed upside, and that’s what he’ll need to hit the over in this game.
Brad Peacock has thrown well this season, but he’s due for small regression, as his ERA (3.62) doesn’t match his xFIP (4.29) or SIERA (4.02). He has allowed 41.6% fly ball and 11% HR/FB rates in 2019. Peacock has also given up 39.3% hard hit and 13.7% soft hit rates this season. He does own a 25.9% strikeout rate, but that could drop, as his swinging strike rate sits at only 9%. Furthermore, Peacock gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank third on the slate in team wOBA. Peacock is a -198 favorite, although the game is set at 9.5 runs. He has struggled to hit value at his current total when failing to record strikeouts, and that’s likely to be the case in this game.
NOTE: Add Nick Markakis UNDER 8.0, or swap with Altuve.
Play $25 on Jose Altuve UNDER 9.0 fantasy points and Brad Peacock UNDER 28.0 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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