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Nick Senzel has burst onto the scene in the MLB, posting a .231 average with a .577 slugging percentage and a .910 OPS. He owns three home runs, four RBIs, and one steal through six games. He has also posted 47% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Senzel gets a tough matchup against Chris Bassitt, but he is due for a slight amount of regression, although his numbers are still above average. Senzel is expected to hit sixth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and while that is less than elite, he comes with far too much upside to avoid at this total. Even in the tough matchup, I’m banking on Senzel’s versatility and Bassitt’s regression to hit the over.
It pains me to be recommending Yu Darvish today, but this total is entirely too low. He has struggled with a 2-3 record, 5.79 ERA, and a 1.71 WHIP through seven starts. He could see a bit of positive regression, though, as he owns a 4.99 xFIP and a 5.41 SIERA, as well. Darvish has struggled with home runs this season, but his 33.3% HR/FB rate simply has to regress. He has also held his opponents to a 30.6% hard hit rate in 2019. Darvish owns a 24.3% strikeout rate, which could see positive regression, as well, as it doesn’t match his elite 13% swinging strike rate. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Darvish is also a -202 favorite, although the game is set at 10 runs. Still, he posted 41 fantasy points in his first matchup against Miami, and he was a decent amount of room for error to find the over in this game.
Play $25 on Nick Senzel OVER 5.5 fantasy points and Yu Darvish OVER 35.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
NOTE: Darvish was originally set at 35.5 fantasy points, and I would still take the over at 37.5 fantasy points.
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