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I generally don’t use pitchers in these players, but we have found two for this slate. Blake Snell’s line seems to be an overreaction to his recent struggles. He has played two games (both against the Kansas City Royals) while dealing with some type of affect from an injury, while his third poor game was against an elite Houston Astros offense. In his other three starts, Snell is averaging 59 fantasy points per game, while scoring 49+ fantasy points in each contest. He isn’t expected to be on a pitch count tonight, and he’s due for positive regression, as his 2.93 xFIP and 3.08 SIERA don’t match his 4.31 ERA. He owns a dominant 33.6% strikeout rate, while allowing only a 25% hard hit rate. His fly ball rate sits right around his career average, while his HR/FB rate is nearly 13% higher than his career average, suggesting he’ll see positive regression in that aspect, as well. In other words, Snell has gotten extremely unlucky this season. He gets a plus matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who don’t strikeout a ton, but also don’t hit left-handed pitching well. Most importantly, Snell is a -208 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, and 10 fantasy points for a quality start and win will nearly guarantee he hits the over.
Unlike Snell, I have very little reason to believe Marcus Stroman will find success in this matchup. He has thrown extremely well this season, but he will find regression, as his 2.20 ERA doesn’t match his 3.82 xFIP and 4.21 SIERA. His 22.8% strikeout rate is a bit higher than his career average, but the same can be said for his 10.7% swinging strike rate. Furthermore, Stroman has yet to allow a single home run through 41 innings, which isn’t sustainable when allowing a 40% hard hit rate. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who strikeout at an extremely low rate against right-handed pitching, but possess an above average offense in terms of team wOBA on this slate. Stroman is a -108 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. I don’t truly expect him to find the win with Martin Perez throwing well on the other side, and without much strikeout potential, Stroman will need the win and quality start to find the over.
Play $25 on Blake Snell OVER 39.5 fantasy points and Marcus Stroman UNDER 27.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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